Author Topic: InstaForex - instaforex.com (Read 573781 times)

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #270 on:** April 17, 2018, 07:42:28 AM »

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 17, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which engulfed the recent bearish pressure with a daily candle yesterday. The volatility in the EURUSD is still quite high and expected to have no definite trend momentum until 1.25 is broken above or 1.21 is broken below. Despite having worse economic reports EUR gained good momentum over USD recently which is expected to push higher in the coming days. Today EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8 from the previous positive figure of 5.1, Italian Trade Balance report is expected to show an increase to 2.23B which previously was at -0.09B and ZEW Economic Sentiment report is expected to decrease to 7.3 from the previous figure of 13.4. On the other hand, today USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.33M from the previous figure of 1.30M, Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.24M, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have slight decrease to 77.9% from the previous value of 78.1% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.1%. Moreover, today FOMC Member Williams and Quarles is going to speak about the nation's interest rate and monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. As of the current scenario, both currencies in the pair is expected to have mixed economic results today and this week there is no further high impact economic reports or events to push the price into a definite trend but as the EUR is quite stronger in comparison to USD with the market sentiment, further bullish momentum is expected after certain retracement along the way in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2350 which was recently broken below with a daily close showing good evidence of price proceeding lower. As of yesterday, after having a daily close above 1.2350 does signify previous bearish move as a false break which is currently expected to push the price much higher in the coming days with the target towards 1.2450-1.25 price area. As the price remains above 1.2350 area, the further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113457

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #271 on:** April 18, 2018, 09:41:43 AM »

Euro buyers need to be very careful

Yesterday, a number of good fundamental data on the US economy had a good support for the US dollar and statements by representatives of the Fed, which are scheduled for this week, gave even more optimism to investors. For example, a representative of the Fed, Evans, said yesterday that the regulator could continue to gradually increase interest rates, even though there is no risk of excessive acceleration of inflation. Charles Evans also voiced anxiety about the uncertainty regarding foreign trade policies, which could carry risks to the US economy. His colleague in charge, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, also remains optimistic about the rates and growth pace of the US economy. However, Williams sees the risks for the growth of the US economy in the next few years, which are mainly tied to the foreign trade policy of the White House. First of all, according to the president of the FRS San Francisco, under the negative impact of the current policy of Trump, there will be companies and ordinary consumers. According to Williams, he expects that the GDP growth rate this year will average 2.5%. Fed President Philadelphia Harker did not comment on the situation associated with the prospects for monetary policy, saying only that unemployment is now below the natural level, which is a good signal for the Federal Reserve System. For today, there is a planned release of a number of important fundamental statistics for the euro area, including inflation, which may determine the further direction in the EURUSD pair at the end of the week. As for the technical prospects, while the trade is above the lower border of the rising channel, which is currently taking place in the area of 1.2340, there is no special reason to worry about the further growth of the euro. However, its breakthrough will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders of large buyers, which will quickly pull the euro down to levels of 1.2300 and 1.2270. In case of further growth, problems for bulls can occur at the levels of 1.2380 and 1.2420. The Japanese yen ignored good data on Japan's export growth and continued its decline against the US dollar. According to the report of the Ministry of Finance, Japan's exports in March 2018 grew as a result of good foreign demand, mainly for cars and equipment. Thus, exports increased by 2.1% compared to the same period of the previous year, while economists forecast a larger increase of 4.9%. Japan's foreign trade surplus in March amounted to 797.3 billion yen against 440 billion yen from economists predicted.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203756

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #272 on:** April 19, 2018, 07:37:30 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April, 19 2018

Wave iv/ is pushing the limit. A rally above the low of wave i/ at 1.6981 can not be allowed, or the preferred count will be invalidated. We do expect important resistance at 1.6981 to remain untouched and will be looking for a break below short-term support at 1.6861 soon, to confirm a top being in place for renewed downside pressure towards the 1.6625 target.

R3: 1.6981

R2: 1.6957

R1: 1.6925

Pivot: 1.6861

S1: 1.6844

S2: 1.6815

S3: 1.6755

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 1.6915 was hit for a 70 pips loss. We will sell EUR at 1.6920 or upon a break below 1.6861. Our stop will be placed at 1.6985.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113704

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #273 on:** April 20, 2018, 08:32:24 AM »

The sterling has every chance to continue its decline

The British pound again fell in the wake of a sell-off due to the release of weak data on retail sales and volume in the UK.

According to the data presented, the base retail sales index in March fell by 0.5% against the forecast of a decline by 0.4% and the February growth by 0.4%. In annual terms, the indicator in growth fell to 1.1% against expectations of growth of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.2%. The retail sales in annual terms fell to 1.1% against the forecast of growth of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.5%, and its March value fell more than expected, by 1.2%, against 0.5% and February growth by 1.5%.

First, after the publication of the data, sterling, oddly enough, even received support and began to gain against the US dollar. Such dynamics of the market can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar and the likely desire of a number of large market players to take advantage of the low activity of market participants and "collect orders" for those whose bet on the selling of the GBPUSD pair. But everything already fell into place in the Asian trading session, the pair fell more than one figure and "lies" at the support level of the short-term uptrend.

Assessing the prospects for the Bank of England, we note that it faces a difficult task, which, it seems, will force itself to refrain from deciding to raise interest rates at the June meeting. The reason for this is the latest data of economic statistics, which indicated not only a drop in inflationary pressures, but also a general decline in economic growth, as the latest GDP data show.

Another strong negative for the British pound is the unresolved issue of Britain's withdrawal from the EU. After the active negotiation process in the winter of this year, in the spring everything was quiet. The British agreed on a transition period, but it seems that they have failed to reduce the financial compensation of the EU, which has a negative impact on the country's economy, of course, apart from the very factor of the severance of many economic ties between Britain and continental Europe.

It is likely that we will witness a new wave of a decline in sterling.

Forecast of the day:

The GBPUSD is trading above 1.4065 on a wave of expectations that the Bank of England will continue the cycle of raising interest rates in the near future. Estimating this, we can assume that the pair after overcoming the mark of 1.4065 will then fall to 1.3960.

The USDCAD pair continues to grow towards our target level of 1.270 amid the Canadian CBA's lack of desire to raise rates. The pair also supports and stops the rise in oil prices after reaching a local peak. Most likely, if the pair overcomes the level of 1.2700, its growth will continue to 1.2800, if the price of oil again unfolds upwards.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/203918

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #274 on:** April 23, 2018, 09:27:15 AM »

Daily analysis of USDX for April 23, 2018

The index has been consolidating above the 200 SMA following a breakout of the tight range in which has been trapped. The next target to the upside still lies at 90.36, where a corrective move could take place in order to gather enough momentum to break higher. If that happens, then it could be on the way to reach the 91.75 level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75 H1 chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 90.63, take profit is at 91.75 and stop loss is at 89.49.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/113932

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #275 on:** April 24, 2018, 08:50:38 AM »

GBP/JPY Bounced Nicely Off Its Support, Lookout For a Further Rise

GBP/JPY tested its support at 150.58 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, ascending support line) where we expect it to rise further to its resistance at 153.85 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). We do have to be cautious of the intermediate resistance at 152.19 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) bounced off its support at 2.03% where it has a lot of upside potential. Buy above 150.58. Stop loss 149.69. Take profit at 153.85.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114059

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #276 on:** April 26, 2018, 08:00:50 AM »

Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 26, 2018

USD/JPY

This pair has gained about 180 pips this week, and the price is now close to the supply level at 109.50. The supply level would be breached to the upside as price targets other supply levels at 110.00 and 110.50. There could be bearish efforts along the way, but things would be overpowered by the ongoing bullish momentum.

There a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is brought about by the recent rally. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have an impact on the market.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114320

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #277 on:** April 27, 2018, 10:27:16 AM »

Trading plan for gold for April 27, 2018

Technical outlook:

Gold 4H chart has been presented here for a larger swing picture. After consolidating for past several weeks, the yellow metal finally peaked at $1,365.00 on April 11, 2018. Since then the story is of lower lows and lower highs and it is still expected to continue the same. Looking at the short term structure, the metal is expected to find the interim support around $1,310 levels. Besides, the the fibonacci extension of 61.8% is also seen to be around $1,313 levels, and hence bullish reversal is expected soon. Please note that this should not be considered as a trend reversal but just a corrective rally is expected for now. Looking at the wave counts, the yellow metal seems to be into its 3rd wave now, which is most likely to end soon. Conservative traders should be looking to book profits in the short term and look for opportunities higher to sell again.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders look to go long with stop below $1,305 levels. Conservative traders please take profits on short positions taken earlier and remain flat.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German unemployment rate at 03:55 AM EST today.

Good luck!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114461

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #278 on:** April 30, 2018, 12:51:27 PM »

Trading Plan for AUDUSD for April 30, 2018

Technical outlook:

The daily chart view presented for AUD/USD is suggesting that the current drop that began in January 2018 from 0.8130 levels is nearing a major price support and Fibonacci 61.8% extension near 0.7500 levels as shown here. Please note that while dropping lower for last 4 months, the pair has broken below its 1-year support trend line and is also looking to take out the price support near 0.7500 levels, before pulling back. Traders who are holding short positions, should prepare to book profits for now and remain flat; while aggressive traders should be preparing to turn bullish for a potential counter trend rally. Looking into the wave counts, the current drop has unfolded into 3 waves until now. Hence chances remain for a continued rally as well. It is still unclear whether AUD/USD is wanting to drop into 5 waves or not. It can be only confirmed in the coming sessions where the counter trend rally would end.

Trading plan:

Prepare to take profits on short positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders prepare to go long around 0.7500 levels with a tight stop.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively. Good luck!

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114635

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #279 on:** May 02, 2018, 08:22:57 AM »

Bitcoin analysis for 02/05/2018

The latest Gov't report from Hong Kong reports that Bitcoin puts a "medium-low" risk in financial crime, according to Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury (FSTB).

The report was to establish a status on money laundering and terrorist financing. It states explicitly that virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin, are not particularly used in any type of financial crime, although there is an inherent vulnerability to money laundering.

The report mentions the use of cryptocurrencies in the pyramids, so-called Ponzi and cybercrime. The report refers in particular to police reports, where in 2013-2017, 167 Bitcoins participated in such non-legal projects. "Although we have not found a significant risk in these modern payment methods, it is a rapidly growing field that requires constant monitoring."- notes the report, pointing out that financial supervision authorities in Hong Kong and law enforcement agencies will work together to look at the risks associated with ICO and generally cryptocurrencies.

According to the report, cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in Hong Kong.

FTSB suggests that because Hong Kong is one of the freest economies in the world with a dynamic currency market and a lack of capital control, VCs are not as attractive as in economies where people may try to avoid currency controls or seek refuge from high inflation rates.

Finally, it was also added that BTC ATMs in Hong Kong are not widely used by citizens. Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame.

The price has broken below the black trend line at the level of $9,126 and now is heading towards the level of $8,706.

The key technical support is still seen at the level of $8,355, but the current price action does not look impulsive actually.

It is quite possible that instead of five waves to the upside, the market will perform only three waves up and will continue with the downtrend.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114767

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #280 on:** May 03, 2018, 11:04:29 AM »

Technical analysis on USDX for May 3, 2018

The Dollar index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains bullish as price remains inside the bullish channel. The warnings from the RSI bearish divergence are still there but now we have also another reason to exit longs. Price has reached very close to the triangle breakout target.

Black lines - triangle

Blue lines - triangle breakout target

The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud. Price has reached the triangle breakout target very closely. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 95.15 is also around this area so Dollar bulls should be very cautious at current levels. Trend remains bullish as long as price is above the Daily cloud at 90. A break below it opens the way for a push to new lows below 88.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #281 on:** May 04, 2018, 10:46:38 AM »

Technical analysis on Gold for May 4, 2018

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel. Price bounced yesterday but was unable to break out of the bearish channel. Price got rejected and is pulling back. I expect price to make new lows towards $1,300-$1,290 today and reverse to the upside.

Blue lines - bearish channel

Blue upward sloping line - bullish divergence

Yellow rectangle - target for reversal Gold price has short-term resistance at $1,319 and support at $1,295.

The RSI continues to diverge and a new lower low might provide the final divergence signal. I'm medium-term bullish Gold looking for a new low with divergence in the RSI to be bought for a reversal at least towards $1,330.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/114968

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #282 on:** May 07, 2018, 10:20:56 AM »

Technical analysis on USDX for May 7, 2018

The Dollar index has broken out of the bullish channel. Despite the new high on the Daily chart we observe a bearish divergence. Last week we noted the bearish divergence signs in the 4 hour chart. I continue to believe that the Dollar looks toppy around current levels and it is not worth chasing bullish positions but looking signs of weakness to sell.

Blue lines - bullish channel Downward sloping blue line - bearish divergence The Dollar index is expected to make a pull back towards 92 at least. Currently trading at 92.80 it has very important resistance here at 93. Very important short-term support is at 91. A break below it will increase the chances that a major top is in. I'm bearish the Dollar.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #283 on:** May 09, 2018, 09:24:37 AM »

CAD/CHF testing its resistance, remain bullish

CADCHF is testing its resistance at 0.7745 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect the price to rise to its resistance at 0.78070 (horizontal swing high resistance) if broken. Stochastic (55, 5, 3) bounced from its support at 7.7% where a corresponding rise is expected. Buy above 0.7745. Set stop loss at 0.7714 and take profit at 0.7807.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115322

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #284 on:** May 10, 2018, 10:21:10 AM »

Global macro overview for 10/05/2018

The decision of the Bank of England will be published on Thursday, May 10 at 01:00 pm GMT. Market participants expect the interest rate to stay at 0.50%. Together with the decision, the Inflation Report will be published with economic forecasts. In the data from the last meeting, the biggest blow was a terrible GDP growth reading after the first quarter, which showed a minimal increase of 0.1% (the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2012). Difficult weather conditions in this period are indicated as the main culprit, although there are also no votes, can everything really be dumped for a prolonged winter? On the other hand, the labor market remains strong, wages accelerate and outpace inflation, and the unemployment rate has already fallen below the NAIRU equilibrium level.

And if it was not for fear of Brexit, BoE would have started aggressively tightening politics for a long time.

Hence, although in the description of the data already published, the BoE message should contain a dovish language with regard to growth and inflation, it is doubtful that the bank would opt for a clear revision of the outlook under the influence of one weaker series. A potential hawkish risk is to downplay readings from the first quarter as charged with one-off events.

A new projection assuming a rebound in the second quarter will be an additional argument that the bank will look for an opportunity to raise earlier. The distribution of votes in the vote to keep the interest rate to stay at 7-2 with Saunders and McCafferty opposed, but the risk lies in the third vote for the increase from Vlieghe. In his last comment, Vlieghe pointed to the strength of the labor market and the need to remove the monetary stimulus earlier. The change in the distribution of votes to 6-3 confirms that the bank does not pay much attention to weaker data and remains at the "three hikes in three years" rate set in February.

Expectations for a rate hike have moved away in time and the market is discounting the full hike only in November 2018. It is difficult to imagine that at the conference President Carney would even further weaken these expectations and, in the worst case scenario, he would repeat that the hike this year is "probable".

Given the impetus that the market abandoned long positions in the pound in the second half of April, now the bar for hawkish surprises should be suspended quite low and it will be easier to start a fresh start in rebuilding GBP.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the BoE interest rate decision is made. Two possible scenarios are available here and both of them depends on the nature of the BoE statement. In a case of a dovish statement from BoE, the market should remain in a horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of 1.3486 - 1.3608. On the other hand, any hawkish statements or comments from BoE will likely result in a breakout above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3608 and an impulsive and sudden move upward towards the levels of 1.3708 and even 1.3889.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115461

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #285 on:** May 11, 2018, 02:23:51 PM »

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for May 11, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains since it bounced off the support area of 80.50-81.80. There has been certain volatility in this pair as both currencies in this pair has been struggling for gains amid mixed economic reports. Today, Australia's Home Loans report was published with a greater deficit to -2.2% from the previous value of -0.2% which was expected to be at -1.9%. The worse economic report did not quite impact the gains of AUD against JPY while JPY has found support from economic reports today. On the JPY side, today M2 Money Stock report was published with an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.1% which was expected to be at 3.2%. Despite the positive economic report, JPY failed to gain momentum over AUD gains which indicates a change in the current market sentiment on the pair. As for the current market scenario, AUD is expected to gain further against JPY in the coming days until Australia comes up with better economic reports before the AUD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports to be published in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is following a bullish trajectory with the gains which has surpassed the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close. As for the current volatility in the market, the price is expected to push higher against the dominant bearish trend of the market and proceed higher towards 84.50 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 80.50 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115601

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #286 on:** May 14, 2018, 02:05:28 PM »

EUR/CHF analysis for May 14, 2018

Recently, the EUR/CHF pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1971. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward corrective structure, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of upward trendline. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1870.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1957

R2: 1.1960

R3: 1.1976

Support levels:

S1: 1.1948

S2: 1.1942

S3: 1.1939

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115687

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #287 on:** May 15, 2018, 09:55:05 AM »

Technical analysis on USDX for May 15, 2018

The Dollar index is bouncing after a couple days of a bearish reversal towards 92. I do not expect the index to make new highs. Resistance by the Ichimoku cloud is at 92.90 and I expect the price to get rejected there today and turn lower. Support is at 92.25-92.15.

My first target for this pullback is at 91.80 and next at 90.80 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is found. Short-term support is at 92.50. Breaking below it will increase chances of moving to new weekly lows towards 91.80. If resistance at 92.90 is broken, we could see a test of the highs at 93.40. I'm bearish the Dollar.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115813

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #288 on:** May 16, 2018, 09:40:17 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 16, 2018

EUR/JPY - 4 Hourly

EUR/JPY has resumed its downtrend towards the ideal target-area between 123.33 - 125.32.

With wave iv in place at 131.27, the final decline in wave C of (E) is now developing. The next minor support is seen at 129.96 and a break below here should accelerate the decline in wave iii/ of v lower to 128.80 and likely even closer to 128.40 as the next downside targets.

The former support at 130.73 has now transformed into resistance and is expected to cap the upside.

R3: 131.13

R2: 130.98

R1: 130.73

Pivot: 130.54

S1: 130.28

S2: 129.96

S3: 129.64

Trading recommendation:

We took profit at 130.70 and booked a nice little profit of 52 pips. We sold EUR again at 130.95 and has placed our stop at 131.20.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/115925

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #289 on:** May 17, 2018, 12:52:20 PM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 17, 2018

EUR/NZD - 4

Hourly We were looking for upside acceleration, but important resistance at 1.7310 once again proved to be strong to break and the bulls gave up the effort to conquest this resistance. Instead, the bears turned EUR/NZD 180 degrees around and managed to break below short-term important support at 1.7056 indicating that wave ii/ still is developing. This means more downside closer to the 169.19 - 169.55 area should be expected before wave ii/ finally completes and is ready to surrender itself to the next rally higher in wave iii/, towards 1.7474 and 1.7832 as the next upside targets.

R3: 1.7158

R2: 1.7129

R1: 1.7097

Pivot: 1.7068

S1: 1.7044

S2: 1.6989

S3: 1.6955

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.7090 was hit for a profit of 126 pips. We will wait for a new EUR buying opportunity at 1.6965 or upon a break above resistance at 1.7188.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116061

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #290 on:** May 18, 2018, 07:12:16 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2018

As EUR/JPY unexpectedly took out minor resistance at 130.73, we were told, that the wave iv is still developing and the final decline in the wave v closer to the target-area between 123.33 and 125.32 is being delayed.

Yesterday we said, that a break above minor resistance at 130.73 would call for a more complex correction in the wave iv and likely a rally to 131.68 and this still holds true, but we also need to be open to another complex corrective pattern, which is a triangle consolidation. If minor resistance near 131.15 is able to cap the upside for a break below 130.56, then this corrective pattern will be the preferred count for the wave iv and a dip closer to 130.05 will be expected in the wave c of the triangle.

R3: 131.68

R2: 131.37

R1: 131.15

Pivot: 130.75

S1: 130.56

S2: 130.27

S3: 130.04

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 130.80 was hit for a small profit of 15 pips. We will be looking for another selling opportunity at 131.50.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116195

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #291 on:** May 21, 2018, 02:14:05 PM »

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for May 21, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive and non-volatile with the bearish gains recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of the 1.1700-20 support area today. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair for a certain period of time where EUR was struggling with the weak economic reports in the process. Today, due to observance of Whit Monday, there is no impactful EUR economic report or event to be held, but this week, on Thursday, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be held which is expected to inject some volatility in the market in favor of EUR gains in the coming days. On the other hand, this week, Fed Chair Powell is going to speak about the upcoming interest rate and inflation rate decision which is expected to favor USD in the coming days. Since 2015, there has been 6 times rate hikes in the US where the trend is expected to continue throughout 2018 as well. Today, FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak about the interest rates and monetary policy which is expected to be quite neutral with the impact on USD gains in the coming days. As of the current scenario, ahead of the upcoming high impact economic report of EUR of this week, certain volatility is expected in the market, whereas EUR might gain against USD for a certain period before the price continues with its bearish trend in future. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 1.1700-20 area from where it is expected to push higher towards the 1.1950-1.20 resistance area in the coming days. After such an impulsive bearish pressure, current bullish pressure is expected to be backed by the Bullish Continuous Divergence along the way. As the price remains above 1.1700 with a daily close, certain bullish intervention is expected in this pair.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116370

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #292 on:** May 22, 2018, 12:25:23 PM »

Analysis of Gold for May 22, 2018

Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,295.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a valid breakout of downward channel (ending diagonal), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for a potential bullish flag and then watch for buying. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,299.10 and at the price of $1,306.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,296.15

R2: $1,300.40

R3: $1,307.85

Support levels:

S1: $1,284.45

S2: $1,277.00

S3: $1,272.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116524

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #293 on:** May 23, 2018, 07:29:07 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 23, 2018

EUR/NZD has followed the expected path almost to perfection. Red wave v spike a bit lower than expected as it bottomed at 1.6889 and not at our ideal target at 1.6922, but the rally that followed the spike to 1.6889 is very constructive and indicates much more upside should be expected from here. The next upside targets to look for is seen at 1.7168 and then important resistance near 1.7300 and break above the later, will release a lot of energy and call for a continuation higher to 1.7474 on the way higher to 1.8000 on the way towards at least 1.8437. Short-term support is see at 1.6999 and again at 1.6963. The later should be able to protect the downside.

R3: 1.7125

R2: 1.7074

R1: 1.7045

Pivot: 1.7013

S1: 1.6999

S2: 1.6963

S3: 1.6889

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.6930 and we will place our stop at 1.6950. If you are not long already, then buy EUR near 1.7000 and use the same stop at 1.6950.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116580

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #294 on:** May 24, 2018, 01:09:07 PM »

Global macro overview for 24/05/2018

Yesterday, FOMC Meeting Minutes confirmed the willingness of further gradual interest rate hikes by the Fed. The market is convinced that another 25 bp cost increase will take place in June. Thus, the process of monetary policy normalization would be continued. In the last statement, the Fed pointed to the symmetry of the inflation target. Yesterday's minutes revealed that the majority of FOMC members are ready to tolerate higher price dynamics for some time, which, given the slight wage pressure, may be an argument for three rather than four interest rate hikes this year. Attention was also paid to the need to change the language of the message and remove the phrase referring to the expansive attitude in monetary policy. Some Fed members believe that monitoring the shape of the yield curve of US bonds remains an important issue. The reverse yield curve can be an indicator that can signal the risk of occurrence. In conclusion, the Fed is about to hike the interest rates in June. The question remains whether the Fed will hike again in September and in December or just in December? Nevertheless, the US Dollar should continue its appreciation across the board. Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to make another local high at the level of 94.19 in overbought market conditions and despite the growing bearish divergence. The price is still trading inside of the channel and as long as the support zone between the levels of 93.21 - 93.11 is not cleary violated, the dominant bias is bullish.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116781

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #295 on:** May 25, 2018, 11:55:52 AM »

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 25. The 33rd figure can be a starting point for an upward trend segment

Analysis of wave counting:

During the trading on May 24, the GBP / USD currency pair failed to update the minimum of May 23. Thus, the instrument continues to make attempts to form the first wave in the composition of the future wave 2, in the downtrend section of the trend. If this assumption is true, then the increase in quotations will continue to at least 35 and 36 figures. A break of the 1.3300 mark will lead to an even more complication of the internal wave structure of the proposed wave 1, a, and further lowering of quotations in the region of 31 figures.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3528 - 127.2% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3555 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3300 - 161.8% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3300 - 261.8% of Fibonacci 1.3045 - 200.0% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The instrument continues to make an attempt in completing the construction of wave 1, a. Around 1.3300, I recommend fixing the profit, and new sales should be started if a successful breakthrough attempt of 33 figures is made. The targets for the complicated wave 1 are located near the calculated mark of 1.3045, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci, constructed from the size of the entire wave 5 of the rising trend section, which ended on April 17. I recommend buying the pair very carefully and with Stop Loss under the minimum of wave 1, a as well.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/206422

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #296 on:** May 28, 2018, 07:10:21 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 28, 2018

With the direct decline to 127.11, we need to reconsider the potential downside for now. If the wave C/ had dropped to 127.06, the wave A/ and C/ would have been exactly equal in length. As EUR/JPY turned almost exactly from the equality target at 127.06, we will have to consider the wave Y and maybe even the wave (E) as complete. Therefore, we have changed our stand temporary and will be looking for a rally back up to 130.30 and maybe even closer to 131.05 before a possible new push lower in a triple zig-zag correction.

A break above the minor resistance at 128.53 will confirm that a low is in place for a rally towards at least 130.30.

R3: 129.93

R2: 129.31

R1: 128.87

Pivot: 128.35

S1: 127.94

S2: 127.68

S3: 127.11

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 127.75 or upon a break above 128.35. We will place our stop at 127.05.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/116963

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #297 on:** May 30, 2018, 11:02:15 AM »

GBP/JPY Approaching Support, Watch For A Bounce

GBP/JPY is approaching our support at 143.08 (Horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension) where we expect price to bounce above this level to our resistance at 146.20 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (55,5,3) is also seeing a bullish divergence and is approaching its support where a bounce off this level will see a corresponding rise in price.

GBP/JPY is approaching support where we expect a bounce.

Buy above 143.08. Stop loss 141.21. Take profit at 146.20.

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #298 on:** May 31, 2018, 09:46:53 AM »

Global macro overview for 31/05/2018

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data published yesterday had indicated, that in May in the private sector of the American economy, the number of jobs increased by 178,000. That's less than the consensus (190,000), but still a decent figure. At the same time, the previous reading has been revised downwards (from 204,000 to 163,000). A decent rate of creation of new jobs is not shocking anyone. It also seems that with such low unemployment (below 4%), the pace of employment growth must finally slow down. Therefore, the key carrier of information on the condition of the labor market, especially in the context of the Fed's policy outlook, is the growth of wages. This data, of course, we will get to know on Friday, but already the secret of the power of broader trends has been abolished by the Beige Book of the Fed containing a description of the economic situation in individual regions.

The Beige Book prepared for the 12-13 June FOMC meeting, covering information through 21 May, indicated few material changes in the trajectory of economic growth in most districts.

A large number of districts reported acceleration in manufacturing and industrial activity, but the outlook for employment and wage growth was largely unchanged with most districts reporting moderate increases in employment but only modest increases in wages.

It looks like the global investors will have to wait for the Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data to make themselves more familiar with the latest details in the US job market direction. Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame.

The market remains locked in a horizontal zone between the levels of 267.96 - 274.15 in neutral market conditions. This consolidation might take some time as the broader technical pattern that is being formed at the larget time frames looks like a triangle.

The key level to the upside is still the zone between the levels of 274.15 - 273.42. The key technical support is seen at the level of 259.36.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/117387

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #299 on:** June 01, 2018, 12:02:48 PM »

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for June 1, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impressive inside the the bearish bias recently after being rejected off the 1.0035 area with a daily close. Ahead of the upcoming high impact US economic reports to be published today, the market is currently quite indecisive and volatile at the edge of 0.9850 area. Today, US Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to increase to 189k from the previous figure of 164k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Though are a lot of speculations whether US economic reports wil be strong. If true, it may lead to further momentum in USD.

On the other hand, today Switzerland Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight decrease to 62.4 from the previous figure of 63.6 which is expected to make certain weakness effect on the CHF gains against USD in the coming days. As for the current scenario, high impact economic reports from the US today is expected to encourage USD gains further in the coming days. Though CHF has been gaining quite well against USD recently, upcoming positive economic reports may lead to continuation of the bullish trend in the pair in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.9850 support area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair.

Ahead of the upcoming high impact USD economic reports today, the market is expected to be volatile but as the price remains above 0.9850 with a daily close, certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair. On the other hand, a break below 0.9850 with a daily close, will lead to further bearish pressure in the pair with target towards 0.97.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/117532

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