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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 4, 2018



We are still looking for a clear break above minor resistance at 1.6764 to confirm that wave ii has bottomed and wave iii to above 1.7300 is ready to develop. As long as minor resistance at 1.6764 is able to cap the upside, a final dip to just below 1.6605 can not be excluded. However, the clear loss of downside momentum does argue, that a low already has been seen at 1.6605 or will be seen just below here for a new rally soon.

R3: 1.6825

R2: 1.6764

R1: 1.6720

Pivot: 1.6675

S1: 1.6636

S2: 1.6605

S3: 1.6584

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6600 or upon a break above 1.6764. If our buy-order at 1.6600 is done, we will place our stop at 1.6510.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/117584

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The British pound is not pleased

GBP / USD

 In the first half of Monday, the British pound rose by 50 points due to business activity growth in the construction sector, as the May estimate did not changed since April (52.5) but did not fall to the projected 52.0. At the same time, Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, announced several possible rate increases over the next three years. But, firstly, it only confirmed the already known line of the Central Bank and secondly, Tenreyro has always been distinguished by increased (and subsequently unjustified) optimism in this regard. As a result, the pound closed the day with a decrease to 35 points under the pressure of the dollar.

Today, the UK business activity index for May is expected to rise to 52.9 from 52.8. The American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected with even greater growth from 56.8 to 57.9, balance in favor of the dollar. We are waiting for the British pound in the range of 1.3225 / 45.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/206997

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Good news is overdue

AUD / USD

 Yesterday, the Australian dollar against the growth of European currencies fell by 30 points. The pessimism was influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement on the growth of political and economic risks, high lending to households, cooling mortgages, and undesirability of the high exchange rate of the national currency for the economy. But this morning, the excellent GDP data for the first quarter came out. The economic growth was 1.0% vs. the forecast of 0.8% and the annual growth estimate was 3.1% vs. the forecast of 2.8%. As part of the GDP, household consumption increased by 0.3% q/q. Capital expenditures increased by 0.5% in the quarter against -0.9% in the fourth quarter.

But tomorrow, the trade balance for April will be published and projected to lower the balance from 1.52 billion dollars to 1.00 billion. On the same day, the US consumer lending data is expected to increase from 11.6 billion dollars to 13.9 billion. In a week, the Fed will take a decision on monetary policy with a high probability that the rate will be raised. Typically, pressures from the media and the preparation of markets begins one week before the FOMC meeting. We are waiting for the decline of the Australian currency to 0.7570.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/207069

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 7, 2018



EUR/NZD has rallied nicely from the 1.6598 low and is currently testing important resistance at 1.6764. We need a clear break above here, to confirm that wave ii did complete at 1.6598 and wave iii higher to above 1.7300 is developing.

 Short-term, we could see a set-back from important resistance at 1.6764 towards 1.6688 for a new challenge of resistance at 1.6764 and the next time we expect a clear break confirming wave iii/ higher towards 1.6937 starts to develop.

At this point on a break below minor support at 1.6612 will question our bullish outlook.

R3: 1.6874

R2: 1.6929

R1: 1.6786

Pivot: 1.6764

S1: 1.6720

S2: 1.6704

S3: 1.6688

 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.6600 and will raise our stop from 1.6510 to 1.6610. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6688 or upon a break above 1.6764.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/117947

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EUR/AUD reversed nicely off resistance, prepare for a drop

EUR/AUD reversed off its resistance at 1.5515 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where we expect the price to drop to the support at 1.5289 (horizontal swing low support). We have to be cautious and watch for the intermediate support at 1.5385 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has also reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop is expected.

Sell below 1.5515. Set stop loss at 1.5601 and take profit at 1.5289.

[Instaforexbuk]

Technical analysis on Gold for June 11, 2018

Gold price has broken above the medium-term trend line resistance, back tested it but still remains inside the $1,307-$1,290 trading range. We continue to be bullish on Gold, expecting at least a bounce towards $1,320-30.



Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Magenta lines - trading range

 Green line - target Gold price is trading above the yellow trend line resistance.

 Support is at $1,293 and next at $1,289. Resistance is at $1,303.25 and next at $1,307. For several days Gold has been moving sideways. My longer-term view remains bullish, but a break below $1,288 could see Gold price dip to $1,275 before turning higher. So traders should keep this scenario also in mind.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/118203

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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 12. The pair is expected to resume growth.



Analysis of wave counting:

During trading on Monday, the EUR/USD fell 40 basis points from the highs of the day, and this development fits perfectly into the scenario of constructing the correctional wave 4, in the composition of the future wave 1, in 1, in 3. If this assumption is correct, then after the completion of the construction of the internal wave c, at 4, the rise in quotations within the framework of wave 5 with targets above the estimated mark of 1,1837, which corresponds to 200.0% of Fibonacci. After the completion of the construction of wave 5, a decrease in the region of 17 figures is expected in the framework of constructing the corrective wave 2, at 1, at 3.

Targets for selling: 1.1700 - 1.1650

 Targets for buying:

1.1958 - 161.8% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.2070 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is supposed to be within the framework of wave 4, at 1, at 1. Based on this, it is recommended to keep buying in order to build a wave of 5, at 1, at 1 with minimal targets near the mark of 1.1837. Successful attempt to break the mark of 1,1837 will lead to a further increase in quotations with a target of about 1.1958, which is equivalent to 161.8% of Fibonacci. During the construction of wave 5, at 1, at 1 it is recommended to reduce buying gradually, because after the completion of this wave, a decrease in the area of 17 figures is possible.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/207430

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile above 129.50 area which indicates the bearish pressure persists in the current market situation. Though JPY has been quite weak with the recent fundamentals providing no hint for further gains, EUR is also struggling for gains as well. Recently, Japan's economic reports were published with mixed results, including BSI Manufacturing Index decreasing to -3.2 from the previous positive value of 2.9 which was expected to increase to 3.2 and PPI report was published with an increase to 2.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.1%.

Moreover, Tertiary Industry Activity also showed a surge to 1.0% from the previous negative value of -0.3% which was expected to be at 0.6%. Ahead of the upcoming BOJ Policy Rate and Policy Statement this week, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum over EUR if Japan manages to provide upbeat economic reports consistently in the coming days. On the other hand, today the eurozone's Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.5%.

Though forecasts are quite dovish at the moment for EUR, certain gains against EUR can be observed ahead of the ECB Press Conference to be held tomorrow. As for the current scenario, certain volatility and correction is likely to persist in the pair in the coming days which may lead to certain indecision and indefinite pressure in the pair. Though JPY is expected to have an upper hand, recent eurozone's economic reports signal a further struggle of the currency in the future. Now let us look at the technical view.

The price is currently a bit bullish after the severe bullish rejection based daily candle closed yesterday above 129.50 area. Currently the price is to push lower towards 124.50 support area as it remains below 131.50 area. So, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/118413

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Global macro overview for 14/06/2018

Not that long ago global investors thought that the risks to the Euro before the meeting outweighed the negative side, because they assumed, that the currency could strengthen based on the expectations of the hawkish result of the meeting, while the tone of decisions and conferences may be less aggressive or result in "sale the facts" behaviour. Nevertheless, the next few days brought stabilization, if not even cooling the demand for EUR, which made investors' attitude return into balance. But the rebound of the EUR/USD after the yesterday's Fed's decision prompts to conclude, that the market is again setting up on a hawkish ECB message. There is a potential for a positive reaction to the decision of the ECB regardless of whether the traders will know the specific details of extending the QE, or the decision will be postponed until July and today we will have to rely on Draghi's suggestions.

In the latter case, a lot will depend on how optimistic Draghi will be about the prospects of accelerating the recovery in the Eurozone and return of inflation to the target levels while reducing the importance of internal risks (like uncertainty in Italy, deterioration in economic data, etc.) and external (like US trade policy and tariffs tax ). However, if the ECB shows that it remains at a previously set exchange rate, it may offer investors confidence in building expectations of a progressive normalization of monetary policy, which will be an important pillar of the long-term EUR power. Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe, before the ECB interest rate decision was made. The price has bounced higher after the Fed interest rate hike yesterday and now the market is approaching the swing high at the level of 1.1839. An interest rate hike by ECB or Draghi hawkish remarks will make EUR/USD to rally way higher than this level.

In this case, the first target would be at the level of 1.1994 (practically round number 1.2000), but in that case, I think it might get extended even to the level of 1.2068 easily. If, however, the ECB will leave the rate unchanged or the Draghi remarks will not be as hawkish as expected, the EUR/USD will likely test the 38% Fibo at 1.1852 and stop there to consolidate the gains.

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Global macro overview for 19/06/2018

It is the lunchtime in Europe now, but the gloomy atmosphere denies to leave investors. The largest European indices remain in red, expressing concern about the speech made by President Donald Trump, during which he threatened to impose additional duties on Chinese products. On the plus side, however, it can be noted that for two hours you can see modest rebound attempts. The futures market on Wall Street has so far yielded less effective price drops than on European or Asian markets. Futures on the SP500 are only sliding by 0.2%, while futures from NASDAQ almost do not record changes in the exchange rate. In a similar condition is the German DAX, which dropped by about 1.5%. Beiersdorf was the only company listed in the DAX index to record increases during today's session. On the currency market, traders can observe increases in USD and JPY, which means the global investors are running to the so-called safe haven assets. Gold also has a price increase, but only by about 0.1%. These movements may be justified by the widespread fear of developing political disputes between China and the US. WTI oil erases yesterday's increases, which were the result of OPEC's less radical approach to raising the level of output, falling by more than 1 percent. and staying at the limit of USD 65 per barrel. The price of cotton falls another day, losing about 2.5%, leveling the levels at the end of May. Let's now take a look at the German DAX index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market opened with a gap down this morning and so far made a low at the level of 12,600, which is a technical support for the price. Currently, the bulls are trying to fill the gap between the levels of 12,837 - 12,684, but so far no avail. The other obstacle on the road higher for bulls is the golden internal trend line, which is acting as a dynamic resistance. If the bulls will be too weak to move higher, the bears will push the price lower again towards the level of 12,547. Weak momentum and stochastic pointing to the downside support the bearish bias.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/118851

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Global macro overview for 21/06/2018

The Bank of England also should not change the policy parameters (interest rates, asset purchase program). Previous supporters of the hike (McCafferty and Saunders) should stay with their opinion, but the rest of the committee will keep its cautious approach. Data from the last meeting do not give clear indications that the second quarter brings such an important rebound after the weak start of the year. PMI indexes rebounded and prices in the industry are rising, but production in April collapsed. Nevertheless, BoE would probably like to make a hike before the settlements (or the confusion because of their absence) of Brexit negotiations, which will take place in October / November. For this reason, the hopes for a hike in August are not going away, but today's BoE is unlikely to suggest whether it is more or less real. However, even small changes in the content of the message regarding the assessment of economic activity may be significant for today's GBP behavior. Risk asymmetry shows an advantage in favor of the Pound, because the neutral statement will not disturb growing expectations for the August increase. The Bank of England is expected to hold the interest rate at 0.50%, together with Asset Purchase Facility at 435bln. The BoE decision is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT, together with Monetary Policy Summary release. Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The key technical resistance at the level of 1.3217 is still not violated as the bulls were too weak to break through it. Since then, the price has fallen towards the level of 1.3124 in a Falling Wedge formation. In a case of a further drop, the next important support is seen at the level of 1.3000 and this level might be very well defended by bulls. Please notice, the market conditions are now oversold on multiple timeframes and the momentum is still weak as it hovers below its fifty level.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119042

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 22, 2018



The minor correction we expected from 1.6921 moved slightly lower than expected and spiked down to 1.6806, but that does not change our outlook for a new impulsive rally soon towards 1.7133 and above.

Short-term, we could see another minor spike to near 1.6806 before the next move higher should be expected.

Only an unexpected break below support at 1.6737 will question our bullish outlook.

 R3: 1.7025

R2: 1.6964

R1: 1.6933

Pivot: 1.6890

S1: 1.6837

S2: 1.6784

S3: 1.6737

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.6815 with our stop placed at 1.6730. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6806 or upon a break above 1.6933 and use the same stop at 1.6730.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119107

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Reluctantly, the Australian falls

AUD / USD

On Friday, the Australian dollar increased significantly, adding 63 points. This growth seems completely unjustified. OPEC + decided to increase production by 1 million barrels per day. True, the prices for raw materials have slightly increased, but the political situation is unlikely to give any further to this trend. US President Trump announced the development of new sanctions (or rather, tariffs and duties) for the Chinese economy.



On the chart of H4, the price could not gain a foothold over the Kruzenshtern blue line, which could push the price back under the balance sheet. In this case, the output of the Marlin oscillator signal line to the positive zone (marked with an arrow) can be completed. To return the price under the balance sheet and the indicator Marlin in the negative zone (the reduction zone) will take time and effort of the market. This effort can be expressed in a horizontal trend. The price reduction to support the trend line (0.7327) may take three days.

[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 26, 2018



EUR/JPY is working its way higher, but we would like to see some real upside acceleration soon. A clear break above resistance at 128.60 should be able to provide the upside acceleration we are looking for towards 130.53 and above here confirms continuation towards the 136.88 target.

Support is now seen at 128.04 and again at 127.85. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the next attack of resistance at 128.60.

R3: 129.45

R2: 128.96

R1: 128.60

Pivot: 128.43

S1: 128.04

S2: 127.85

S3: 127.66

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR at 128.15. We will move our stop slightly higher to 127.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR in the 127.85 - 128.05 zone or upon a break above 128.60 and use the same stop at 127.20.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119272

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 27, 2018



EUR/NZD took the more bullish alternate count and rallied directly higher. The first target at 1.7070 has already been exceeded opening for a continuation higher towards 1.7130 and even closer to 1.7240 if red wave v extends.

Support is now seen at 1.7016 and only a break below here, will confirm that wave i/ has completed and wave ii/ towards 1.6833 is developing.

 R3: 1.7240

 R2: 1.7185

R1: 1.7130

Pivot: 1.7073

S1: 1.7041

S2: 1.7016

S3: 1.6960

Trading recommendation: After taking 50% profit at 1.7000 yesterday, we are still 50% long EUR from 1.6815. We will raise our stop to 1.7010.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119349

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 28, 2018



We have expressed our caution the last couple of days, as EUR/JPY has failed to accelerate higher. With the break below support at 127.24, our bullish outlook has been invalidated and we have had to review our larger count. The new top-count shows that wave (E) of the huge triangle consolidation that has been developing since July 2008 still is developing, within a triple zig-zag correction and that wave Z lower to near 123.52 still should be seen. A decline to 123.52 will also be a 50% correction of wave (D). Resistance is now seen at 127.88 and again at 128.24.

R3: 128.84

R2: 128.24

R1: 127.88

Pivot: 127.55

S1: 127.12

S2: 126.97

S3: 126.61

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 127.20 was hit. We will stand aside for now.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119420

[Instaforexbuk]

AUD/CAD Testing Major Support, Look For The Bounce

AUD/CAD is testing major support at 0.9737 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) and a strong bounce could occur at this level to push prices all the way up to major resistance at 0.9809 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 5.8% where a corresponding bounce could occur. Buy above 0.9737. Stop loss at 0.9698. Take profit at 0.9809.


Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119506

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 02, 2018



USD Index at Daily Charts seems meeting its strong Resistance level at 95.05, and this level looks like a good barrier for the USDX to continue going up, in a few days ahead there is a possibility the USDX will go down to test 94.67 as its first target and the 93.19 as its secondary target as long as the USDX does not break out and closes above 95.53.

(Disclaimer)

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119576

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Technical analysis of Crude Oil for July 03, 2018



If we look at the Daily Charts, we will see that the Crude Oil bias is in a Bullish condition, but it seems already overbought this situation. The price is already at the top of the up channel and the Stochastic Oscillator is already at the overbought level too, basing on this fact in a few days ahead there is a possibility for the #CL to get a down correction to the Moving Average Period 21 or to the (RBS) Resistance Become Support Zone at 61.90-66.64 level.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119658

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for July 04, 2018



The Ethereum at Daily Charts looks like still continuing its Bearish bias. This is already confirmed by the price moving in a down slope channel and we've spotted the hidden Divergence between the MACD Histogram and the price, so the tendency of this Cryptocurrency still continues its downtrend.

(Disclaimer) *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119730

[Instaforexbuk]

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 5, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains today after rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA yesterday with a daily close. Whereas AUD has been struggling with the recent economic reports, Trade War tension has got into USD ahead of the upcoming NFP report this Friday.

Recently AUD Retail Sales report was published with better than expected value at 0.4% decrease from the previous value of 0.5% but a slightly better than expectation of 0.3% and Trade Balance report failed to meet the expectation with the actual figure of 0.83B increasing from the previous figure of 0.47B which was expected to be at 1.21B.

On the other hand, ahead of the NFP report tomorrow, today Challenger Job Cuts report is going to be published today which previous was at -4.8% with no expectation so far, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k, Unemployment Claims is expected to decrease to 225k from the previous figure of 227k, Final Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 56.5 and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is expected to have slight decrease to 58.3 from the previous figure of 58.6.

Moreover, today FOMC Meeting Minutes is going to be held which is expected to have a higher impact on the USD momentum this week. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the coming days despite the AUD mixed economic reports published recently.

Though certain volatility may occur in the process market is still not anti USD biased by now for the Trade War for which certain gains may be observed on the USD side for the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.7350 area from where it is expected to push much lower towards 0.72 area in the coming days.

 The trend has been a bit non-volatile recently for which expected impulsive momentum is yet to be observed in the pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7500-50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

NEAREST RESISTANCE: 0.7500-50

NEAREST SUPPORT: 0.7250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE VOLATILE



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119803

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 06, 2018



When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian Retail Sales m/m, French Trade Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1750.

Strong Resistance:1.1743.

Original Resistance: 1.1732.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1721.

Target Inner Area: 1.1665.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1633.

 Original Support: 1.1654.

Strong Support: 1.1643.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1636

. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/119876

[Instaforexbuk]

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 11, 2018



When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as German 10-y Bond Auction. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, PPI m/m, and Core PPI m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1786.

Strong Resistance:1.1779.

Original Resistance: 1.1768.

 Inner Sell Area: 1.1757.

Target Inner Area: 1.1729.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1701.

Original Support: 1.1690.

 Strong Support: 1.1677.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1670.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120096

[Instaforexbuk]

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 12, 2018



Technical outlook:

The hourly EUR/USD chart presented here indicates that the currency pair is dropping in a corrective manner since printing highs at the 1.1790 levels recently. At this point in time, prices are finding support at a past resistance turned support zone around the 1.1660/70 levels. According to the Fibonacci extensions displayed here, it remains quite possible for the pair to drop through the 1.1650/30 levels to find further support before turning higher. The price support is seen at the 1.1590 levels, followed by the 1.1530 levels, respectively, while interim resistance is seen at the 1.1790 levels. Most probable direction is to push higher at least one last time towards 1.1850 and above, before reversing lower again. Please note that in the medium term, till the prices remain below the 1.2150 levels, bears shall be in complete control.

Trade plan:

Aggressive traders, now look to buy again between the 1.1630/60 levels, with stop below 1.1550 and target above 1.1850.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for USD CPI at 0800 AM EST today.

Good luck!

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120162

[Instaforexbuk]

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for July 13, 2018



Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is seen to be trading around the potential resistance zone at the 94.80/95.00 levels. Also please note the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance passing through the 94.85 levels as depicted here. A bearish turn seems to be the high probable move from here, bottom line prices should remain below the 95.50 levels for now. Also note that the US Dollar Index might be working on wave (4) of a higher degree and until prices stay above the 91/92 levels, the count remains valid. For now, bears should be back in control from around these levels and continue to drag prices below 93.80 at least. On the flip side, if resistance at 95.50 is taken off, it would mean that bulls are targeting the 98.00 levels before taking a meaningful correction.

Trading plan:

Remain short from here, stop above 95.50, target at 93.00.

 Fundamental Outlook:

Watch out for USD U. Michigan at 1000 AM EST, followed by Fed Monetary Policy to Congress at 1100 AM EST.

Good luck!

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120250

[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 16, 2018



Wave i/ peaked at 1.7479 and the ongoing correction in wave ii/ will ideally make it lower to the 38.2% support at 1.7067 before turning higher in wave iii/ towards 1.8638.

Short-term a break below minor support at 1.7238 confirms more corrective downside pressure towards 1.7112 and ideally towards the 38.2% corrective target at 1.7067 to complete wave ii/ and set the stage for the next upside attack in wave iii/ towards 1.8638.

R3: 1.7379

R2: 1.7320

R1: 1.7299

Pivot: 1.7238

S1: 1.7200

S2: 1.7181

S3: 1.7139

Trading recommendation: We will wait for a buying opportunity near 1.7067

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120297

[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2018



EUR/JPY is now testing the 161.8% extension target for red wave iii and a correction should be expected anytime towards 130.87 and maybe even closer to 130.59 in red wave iv, before red wave v will be ready to take over, for a continuation higher towards 133.49 and the ideal target for black wave iii/ at 137.68. Our preferred long-term count shows that a huge wave triangle completed with the test of 124.59 and wave [C] to above 169.97 now is developing. As we still are in the very early stages of this [C] wave higher, the waves will be less clear, but as wave [C] builds it will become easier to extract the larger waves.

 R3: 132.54

 R2: 132.11

R1: 131.63

Pivot: 131.41

S1: 131.24

S2: 131.08

S3: 130.87

Trading recommendation: We will use the coming correction in red wave iv to buy EUR. Ideally as close to 130.10 as possible.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120367

[Instaforexbuk]

Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for July 17. Meeting of leaders of the US and Russia did not affect the pair



Analysis of wave counting:

 During the Monday session, the EUR/USD pair gained about 20 bp, counting the close of the day. Thus, the pair remains within the framework of the proposed wave 5 of the downward trend section. If this is the case, then the construction of an internal correction wave in the future has begun. On this basis, the decline in quotations should resume in the near future. The absence of breakdown of the maximum wave 4, in 3, the maximum wave a, in 4 indicates the preservation of the downward sentiment in the foreign exchange market. A successful attempt to break through the high of July 9 will require us in refining the wave count.

Goals for sales:

1.1510 - 100.0% by Fibonacci

1.1433 - 127.2% Fibonacci retracement

 Goals for shopping:

1.1866 - 100.0% Fibonacci retracements

1.2072 - 127.2% by Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

There is every reason to assume completion of the wave construction at 4th in c. Thus, it is recommended to continue selling the pair with the first targets near the estimated marks of 1.1510 and 1.1433, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. Moreover, I recommend buying the pair only after a successful attempt to break the maximum of the assumed wave c at 4th. Then the pair can proceed to a more extensive formation of the ascending set of waves.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/209750

[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 19, 2018



The wave ii/ correction towards at least 1.7067 is developing as expected. Wave c/ of ii/ is most likely shaping up to be an ending diagonal, meaning that resistance should be expected near 1.7182 for the final leg lower to the corrective target at 1.7067 from where a new impulsive rally is expected.

Only a direct break above resistance at 1.7236 will indicate a premature completion of wave c/ and ii/ for the next rally higher towards 1.7668 and 1.7979 as the next upside targets. R3: 1.7298 R2: 1.7236

R1: 1.7182

Pivot: 1.7136

S1: 1.7116

S2: 1.7067

S3: 1.7026

 Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 1.7075 or upon a break above resistance at 1.7236

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120522

[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 20, 2018



EUR/JPY has dipped just below the target seen at 130.67 (the low has been seen at 130.59), this is enough to fulfill the red wave iv target and set the stage for a new impulsive rally higher in red wave v towards the 133.02 - 133.60 area.

 To confirm that red wave iv has completed, we need to see resistance at 131.50 be broken, which will confirm red wave v is building. This also means, that as long as this resistance is able to cap the upside, a deeper correction in red wave iv remains possible towards 130.18.

R3: 131.98

R2: 131.50

R1: 131.22

Pivot: 130.59

 S1: 130.18

S2: 129.88

S3: 129.59

 Trading recommendation:

We have bought EUR at 130.80 and we will place our stop at 129.80. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 131.22 or more conservative a break above 131.50 and start by using the same stop at 129.80.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120600