Author Topic: InstaForex - instaforex.com (Read 573782 times)

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #330 on:** July 23, 2018, 07:36:55 AM »

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 23, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile between the price range of 0.73 to 0.75 area which is still expected to push lower in the coming days as of the trend momentum. AUD has been quite positive with the recent gains against USD which is expected to last for short-term. Ahead of the high impact economic reports to be published on Thursday this week including CPI report which is expected to show an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.4% and Trimmed Mean CPI report is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Today AUD CB Leading Index report is going to be published which previously was at 0.1% and expected to have an optimistic outcome. On the other hand, this week Core Durable Goods report is going to be published on Thursday which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0% and Average GDP report on Friday is expected to increase to 4.0% from the previous value of 2.0. Today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 5.46M from the previous figure of 5.43M. As of the current scenario, both currencies in this pair are quite optimistic with the upcoming economic reports which might lead to further volatility in the pair but USD may have an upper hand over AUD having bigger gap in the forecasts with more optimism in the market sentiment. Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently bounced off the 0.73 support area from where it might show certain bullish momentum but as the price remains below 0.75 the bearish bias is expected to continue and push the price lower towards 0.7050 in the coming days. On the other hand, a break above 0.75 with a daily close is expected to inject bullish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.77 area in the future.

RESISTANCE: 0.75, 0.77

SUPPORT: 0.73, 0.7050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120684

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #331 on:** July 24, 2018, 07:33:48 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2018

We continue to look for more upside pressure through resistance at 1.7268 and more importantly through resistance at 1.7305, that calls for red wave iii towards 1.7505 on the way higher towards 1.8381.

Support is now seen at 1.7206 and again at 1.7170. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7268.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7232

Pivot: 1.7208

S1: 1.7184

S2: 1.7164

S3: 1.7144

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR at 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.7268 and start by using the same stop at 1.7110.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120763

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #332 on:** July 25, 2018, 07:21:13 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2018

EUR/JPY has traded within a very narrow 47 pips band the last couple of days. We expect a bottoming process to be developing and it should just be a matter of time, before EUR/JPY breaks above resistance at 130.44 confirming that a bottom is in place for the red wave ii and that the red wave iii towards 133.60 is developing.

That said, we also need to be aware, that as long as resistance at 130.44 is able to cap the upside, the possibility of a spike low persists. If such a spike is seen, it should be short-lived and will likely not move below 129.44.

R3: 131.05

R2: 130.75

R1: 130.44

Pivot: 130.27

S1: 130.01

S2: 129.75

S3: 129.44

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above 130.44. Our stop will be placed 10 pips below the most recent low.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120852

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #333 on:** July 26, 2018, 06:54:30 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2018

The ongoing correction in red wave ii keeps pushing lower, but it must not break below the start of red wave i at 1.7116 as a break below here, will confirm that black wave ii still is in motion and is headed for support at 1.7066.

If, however, the low of red wave i at 1.7116 stays untouched, as we expected, for a break above the channel resistance near 1.7199, that will call for red wave iii towards 1.7510 on the way towards the first long-term target at 1.8381.

R3: 1.7305

R2: 1.7268

R1: 1.7199

Pivot: 1.7184

S1: 1.7165

S2: 1.7130

S3: 1.7116

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above the channel-resistance at 1.7199 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/120939

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #334 on:** July 27, 2018, 07:57:54 AM »

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for July 27, 2018

AUD/JPY has been residing inside the range between 80.50 to 84.50 for a few months now and currently, the price is expected to push lower towards the support area of 80.50 in the coming days. Despite the recent worse economic reports, JPY managed to maintain its momentum over AUD and expected to extend it further in the coming days. AUD has been performing quite well with the economic reports but failed to meet the stamina it needed for standing against the impulsive JPY gains in the process.

Today AUD PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. After the positive increase in AUD Import Prices to 3.2% from the previous value of 2.0%, today's economic report pushed the market to further indecision against JPY.

On the JPY side, having a series of mixed economic reports this week, today JPY Tokyo Core CPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.7%.

As of the current scenario, the indecision and corrective momentum is expected to continue further as the mixed economic reports on the both currency in the pair struggles. Though AUD has been quite positive earlier but JPY managed to maintain that positive attitude to sustain the gains it managed throughout the previous days of the market but the indecision and volatile is still expected to exist in the market until the range boundary is broken with a daily close.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA while residing below 84.50 area and a recent lower high in the process. Yesterday's bearish candle was quite powerful as it engulfed the previous bullish candles with an ease which also indicates upcoming bearish momentum in the process. As the price remains below 84.50 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue in this pair as the long-term trend is also bearish. SUPPORT: 80.50 RESISTANCE: 84.50 BIAS: BEARISH MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121018

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #335 on:** July 30, 2018, 07:19:42 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2018

EUR/JPY remains lock inside the descending channel towards the 128.55 - 128.98 target area. Once this area is tested red wave ii is expected to complete and a new impulsive rally in red wave iii should take over for a rally towards 135.74.

Short-term resistance is seen at 129.65 and again at 130.28. A break above the later will be a strong indication that red wave ii has completed and that red wave iii is developing.

R3: 130.28

R2: 130.03

R1: 126.65

Pivot: 129.35

S1: 129.09

S2: 128.98

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 128.60 or upon a break above 130.28.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121091

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #336 on:** July 31, 2018, 06:55:31 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 31, 2018

EUR/JPY found support near the 61.8% corrective target at 128.98 (the low was seen at 129.09). The following break above the channel resistance-line indicates that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii now is developing. To confirm this is the case, we still need a clear break above resistance at 130.44. A clear break above here will call for a rally towards 135.74.

Support is now seen at 129.84 and again at 129.43. Ideally the later will protect the downside for a test and break above resistance at 130.44.

R3: 130.74

R2: 130.44

R1: 130.10

Pivot: 129.84

S1: 129.43

S2: 129.09

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 129.55 or upon a break above 130.28.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121180

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #337 on:** August 02, 2018, 09:20:37 AM »

Global macro overview for 02/08/2018

Before the today's Bank of England interest rate decision the market is counting on the so-called dove raise, i.e. the decision to raise, wrapped in a careful and not very optimistic comment.

However, with the uncertainty associated with the Brexit negotiations and after the last series of weaker data, the Bank of England will have to justify the increase, which poses a risk of hawkish receipt. Lack of pound strength to rebound suggests that demand is waiting for the green light that BoE can give.

The money market has discounted today's hike to over 90%, seeing less 10% chances for the next move before the end of the year and one full move by 25 bp by the end of 2019. With such a valuation, the decision on the hike will not be an element conquering the GBP volatility.

Support for the 9-0 application is the most likely scenario for building the consistency of the message. If BoE wants to raise interest rates, August is the last date this year.

If you prefer the meetings where the Inflation Report is published, the next opportunity will be in November, just a few days after deciding whether the UK and the EU have set Brexit conditions.

Suspending such a critical decision for a period of potential political turmoil would be ill-advised. The Bank of England has no interest in deepening the weakness of the GBP, hence there is no justification in the overly dovish tone of the monetary statement. Too weak GBP will disturb inflation trends, which will only make it difficult for BoE to assess indicators.

The present valuation of the pound even the neutral overtone of the message can be positively received, thus becoming a catalyst for closing short positions in GBP. Relief in the absence of information noise related to Brexit (holiday break of the British parliament) may be a good excuse to draw GBP higher, but it seems to us that first the central bank is needed to be ignited.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the BoE decision is made. The market calmly awaits the interest rate decision as it is trading in the middle of the range at the level of 1.3102 at the time of writing.

The internal trend line is giving the support for the price, but in a case of a further weakness, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3072 and 1.3049. The most important technical support is still at the level of 1.2955.

On the other hand, the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3191 - 1.3217 is preventing the price from falling higher, so in the bulls want to regain the control over the market, they must break out impulsively above this zone.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121373

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #338 on:** August 03, 2018, 07:42:23 AM »

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for August 3, 2018

EUR/CAD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains it formed last week since the bullish rejection off the 1.5450 area with a daily close. While the EURO is struggling with the recent economic reports, CAD has gained momentum despite the tension growing because of Trade Wars on both countries. Recently CAD GDP Report was published with a significant increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which did provide the necessary push required for the CAD to continue its momentum against EUR in the process.

Today CAD Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to -2.3B from the previous figure of -2.8B. On the other hand, EURO Final Services PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 54.4 and Retail Sales is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%. Moreover, there are a series of economic report on German, Italian and French Services PMI which is expected to be unchanged, providing no indication of further momentum in the process. As of the current scenario, CAD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports and still quite optimistic with the forecasts of upcoming economic reports while EUR is expected to struggle further with indecisive unchanged value and figures. To sum up, CAD is expected to gain further momentum over the EURO in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently bounced off the dynamic level of 20 EMA before becoming impulsive with the bearish gains in the process.

The trend has been bearish and currently expected to push lower towards 1.50 support area from where certain bullish intervention may be observed which can lead to certain bullish momentum in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price manages to break below 1.50 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to extend further with target towards 1.4850 in the future.

SUPPORT: 1.50

RESISTANCE: 1.5450

BIAS: BEARISH MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121461

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #339 on:** August 06, 2018, 06:52:42 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 6, 2018

EUR/NZD failed to break clearly above resistance at 1.7205 once again, which is disappointing. As long as support at 1.7116 is able to protect the downside we will remain slightly bullish, but the failure to break clearly above resistance the 1.7205 - 1.7224 zone does raise the possibility of the alternate count, that a final dip closer to 1.7066 will be needed before wave ii/ finally completes and wave iii/ will be ready to take over.

We will need a clear break above resistance at 1.7224 to confirm that wave iii/ is developing.

R3: 1.7224

R2: 1.7180

S1: 1.7155

Pivot: 1.7137

S1: 1.7117

S2: 1.7094

S3: 1.7066

Trading recommendation:

We remain long EUR at 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a clear break above 1.7224 before committing.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121507

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #340 on:** August 07, 2018, 06:59:12 AM »

Trump's trade policy continues to work

The euro continued to decline against the US dollar in the morning of Monday, August 6, amid the lack of important fundamental statistics, as well as expectations of further interest rate hikes in the United States.

Data on the sharp decline in orders in Germany put pressure on risky assets.

According to a report by the German Ministry of Economy, production orders in Germany declined sharply in June this year due to falling demand from countries outside the eurozone.

This suggests that the current tensions in trade relations are already affecting the indicators, which will further exacerbate tensions between the US and the EU.

As indicated in the report, orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany in June 2018 fell by 4.0% compared to May, while economists had forecast a decline in orders by 0.5%.

The ministry confirmed the fact that the uncertainty of the prospects of trade policy played a key role.

External orders in the German manufacturing sector in June fell by 4.7% compared to May, while domestic production orders decreased 2.8% compared to the previous month.

As I noted above, a particular decrease in orders was observed from countries that are not members of the eurozone. Here the figure fell by 5.9%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, orders in the German manufacturing sector decreased by 0.8%. As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, then, most likely, the pressure on the euro will continue.

The breakthrough of support of 1.1530 will lead to new large sales in risky assets, with an exit to the lows of the month in the area of 1.1480 and 1.1440.

The only hope of buyers in the short term is a return to the resistance of 1.1565, which will lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.16 and 1.1630.

The British pound continued to decline, ignoring the report on the volume of consumer lending in the UK, which in June this year has not changed compared to may.

This shows that consumer spending will continue to grow in the future. According to the Bank of England, in June 2018, net consumer lending to consumers in June amounted to 5.4 billion pounds against 5.3 billion pounds in May. Credit cards in June amounted to 1.6 billion pounds.

As for mortgage loans, the number was at the level of 65,619. As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the recovery prospects are also quite far. Brexit and uncertainty with a further increase in interest rates in the UK continue to weigh on the pound.

The current main goal of the sellers of the pound is the lows of 1.2890 and 1.2815.

If we talk about the prospects for an upward correction, then, apparently, it will be limited in the area of resistances 1.2960 and 1.3000.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/211213

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #341 on:** August 08, 2018, 06:41:17 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 8, 2018

EUR/JPY has rallied nicely from the 128.48 low and is ready to test the short-term important resistance at 129.62. This resistance might be spiked, but likely only shortly and then cause a corrective decline to 129.00 before trying to push higher again.

To confirm that wave ii/ completed with the 128.48 test, we need a clear break above 129.62 and upside acceleration towards important resistance at 131.15. A break above this resistance confirms our preferred scenario and calls for a rally towards 135.74 - 135.79 next.

R3: 130.61

R2: 130.33

R1: 130.08

Pivot: 129.62

S1: 129.24

S2: 129.00

S3: 128.78

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.72. We will take half profit at 129.50 and keep our stop at 128.45 for the rest.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121680

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #342 on:** August 09, 2018, 06:55:47 AM »

GBP/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

GBP/AUD is approaching its support at 1.7274 (61.8% Fibonacci extension 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance at 1.7571 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 1.712% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

GBP/AUD is approaching its support where we expect to see it bounce.

Buy above 1.7274. Stop loss at 1.7087. Take profit at 1.7571. . . . . . .

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Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/121756

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #343 on:** August 15, 2018, 02:35:18 PM »

Analysis of Gold for August 15, 2018

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,184.20. According to the M30 time – frame, I found a broken bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies. The downward target is set at the price of $1,179.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,197.00

R2: $1,201.07

R3: $1,204.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,190.65

S2: $1,187.80

S3: $1,184.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122119

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #344 on:** August 16, 2018, 06:54:39 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2018

A break above resistance at 1.7355 is still needed to confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii to above 1.7484 is developing. Short-term, we see support at 1.7262 and again at 1.7238. The later will ideally be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.7355 towards 1.7484 and above, with the next important targets seen at 1.7924 and 1.8369.

R3: 1.7484

R2: 1.7417

R1: 1.7355

Pivot: 1.7299

S1: 1.7270

S2: 1.7243

S3: 1.7220

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7245 with our stop placed at 1.7215.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122146

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #345 on:** August 17, 2018, 07:27:00 AM »

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for August 17, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective recently which is heading towards the resistance area of 0.9980 with certain bullish pressure.

CHF has been struggling recently with the economic reports, whereas USD has been performing better than expected which leads the bullish pressure to continue with certain squeeze on the upside.

Recently, CHF PPI report has been published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to increase to 0.3%.

The worse economic results did empower USD to gain good momentum over CHF, whereas ahead of the upcoming CHF Trade Balance report, certain volatility may remain in the market.

On the USD side, Retail Sales report has recently been published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1% and Core Retail Sales also has increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%.

The positive economic results did provide the needed boost for the currency, whereas CHF was struggling to impress the market sentiment.

Today, USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 98.1 from the previous figure of 97.9 and CB Leading Index is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%.

As of the current scenario, ahead of the CHF Trade Balance next week, USD is expected to remain consistent with the gains having better economic results backing it. As USD manages to publish better reports, further gain on the bullish side is expected in this pair. Now let us look at the technical view.

The price is currently residing at the edge of the 0.9980 area from where a daily close above it is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the pair which is more likely as of the current price formation.

As the price closes above 0.9980 with a daily close, further bullish momentum with target towards the 1.0050 area is expected.

On the other hand, if the price fails to break above 0.9980, certain bearish pressure is expected which will continue the bullish squeeze further in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980, 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122208

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #346 on:** August 20, 2018, 07:19:32 AM »

AUD/USD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop!

AUD/USD reversed off its resistance at 0.7320 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 0.7245 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected. AUD/USD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop. Sell below 0.7320. Stop loss at 0.7245. Take profit at 0.7364.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122277

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #347 on:** August 23, 2018, 05:38:10 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2018

EUR/JPY still has not broken important short-term resistance at 128.48, but then it has not started to move strongly lower as we normally should expect at the completion of an expanded flat. Therefore we are shifting our preferred count in favor of wave C and II having completed with the test of 124.86 and wave III now in its infancy.

Under this count EUR/JPY should make a small downward correction towards 127.23 - 127.33 area in red wave iv and then move higher towards the 128.92 - 129.32 area in red wave v. This will complete black wave i/ and should set the stage for a corrective decline in wave ii/ towards the 125.76 - 126.44 area before the next impulsive rally higher.

That said, the possibility of a final dip closer to 124.62 remains possible, but time is running out fast.

R3: 128.92

R2: 128.48

R1: 128.24

Pivot: 127.93

S1: 127.72

S2: 127.50

S3: 127.33

Trading recommendation:

We are 50% long EUR from 126.26 with our stop placed at 126.84. We will take profit on the final 50% at 128.75.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122481

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #348 on:** August 24, 2018, 07:21:11 AM »

Global macro overview for 24/08/2018

The Australian dollar regained some losses from yesterday's session thanks to the election of a new prime minister. Scott Morrison was previously the Minister of Treasury and chairman of the Liberal Party of Australia. A 50-year-old politician is considered to be a safe and good choice, as evidenced by the reaction on the financial markets. Malcolm Turnbull stepped down from the prime minister's chair, but at the end of his term, he said a few bitter words. He believes that he has been treated unfairly by his colleagues and colleagues from the party. He announced that he would soon leave the parliament. On the other hand, he congratulated Morrison on the appointment of the prime minister and thanked him for his loyal job as the Minister of the Treasury. He wished him all the best on his new career path. Three candidates applied for the prime minister's seat, and Morrison is the most stable choice. He is known for his decisive approach to governing and knowledge of the economy.

He can enjoy his position at best for less than a year. In May 2019, parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place, but much is said in Australia about their acceleration. In the meantime, economists issued a commentary on the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to them, the central bank will not raise interest rates for a long time.

The loosening should start in less than two years. Economists believe that there will be two rate hikes in the first half of 2020. According to earlier forecasts, the loosening was to start already in the first half of next year. Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame.

The market has bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.7246 although new local low was made at 0.7237. The price is currently trading just below the 38% Fibo of the recent swing down at the level of 0.7292. The market conditions look oversold, but the momentum is still below its fifty level, so after the local pull-back completes, the downtrend is expected to continue.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122570

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #349 on:** August 27, 2018, 06:52:32 AM »

USD/JPY Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

USD/JPY reversed off its resistance at 111.46 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 110.09 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected. USD/JPY reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop. Sell below 111.46. Stop loss at 112.44. Take profit at 110.09. .

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122632

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #350 on:** August 28, 2018, 06:42:44 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 28, 2018

The correction turned out much smaller thane expected and was likely only a red sub-wave iv correction and not the start of the correction in black wave ii/ as we where looking for. This means the rally of red wave iv is red wave v and the ideal target for this wave is seen at 130.38, where the red wave v will be equal in length to the red wave i. Once the impulsive rally from 124.89 finds its peak, a correction to at least 127.64 should be expected.

In the short-term, a break below minor support at 129.58 will indicate that the black wave i/ has completed and the black wave ii/ is developing.

R3: 130.60

R2: 130.38

R1: 129.95

Pivot: 129.58

S1: 129.21

S2: 128.78

S3: 128.42

Trading recommendation: Our stop at 129.80 was hit for a 50 pips loss. We will resell EUR at 130.35 or upon a break below 129.58 with a stop placed at 131.35.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/122674

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #351 on:** August 29, 2018, 11:23:03 AM »

EUR/AUD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

EUR/AUD reversed off its resistance at 1.5954(61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 1.5734 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/AUD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop. Sell below 1.5954. Stop loss at 1.6066. Take profit at 1.5734.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/122790

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #352 on:** August 30, 2018, 09:11:04 AM »

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for August 30, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite volatile and corrective recently after breaking above 80.50 area with a daily close. Despite downbeat economic reports from Australia today, the currency has not yet weakened enough to give in to JPY.

Today Australia's Private Capital Expenditure report was published with a significant decrease to -2.5% from the previous positive value of 1.2% which was expected to be at 0.6% and Building Approvals also showed a significant decrease to -5.2% from the previous positive value of 6.8% which was expected to be at -2.2%.

On the JPY side, the Japanese currency was struggling to gain momentum recently due to indecisive results from the economic reports, but today Japan's Retail Sales report came in beyond expectations, while decreasing from 1.7% to 1.5% but performing better than 1.3% which lead JPY to gain impulsive momentum over AUD in the process.

Meanwhile, AUD performed worse amid high impact economic reports like Private Capital Expenditure and Building Approvals that is expected to hurt upcoming gains for the currency. On the other hand, JPY is likely to regain momentum until Australia presents positive economic reports to justify its further gains in the pair for the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure which led to certain downward momentum in the volatile and corrective phase of the market. The dynamic level is being breached currently whereas a daily close with such bearish pressure is expected to inject further bearish momentum with a target towards 80.50 and lower in the coming days.

On the other hand, a daily close above 82.00 is expected to provide the required momentum for the pair as a counter move against the ongoing bearish trend. As the price remains below 82.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 80.50, 78.50

RESISTANCE: 82.00, 85.00

BIAS: BEARISH MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/122858

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #353 on:** August 31, 2018, 07:58:03 AM »

AUD/USD Testing Support, Prepare For Bounce

AUD/USD is approaching its support at 0.7243 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where the price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 0.7311 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support at 3.8% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

AUD/USD is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce. Buy above 0.7243. Stop loss at 0.7203. Take profit at 0.7311.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/122920

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #354 on:** September 03, 2018, 07:31:18 AM »

EUR/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce

EUR/JPY is approaching its support at 128.56 (100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 129.81 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 1.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur. EUR/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce. Buy above 128.56. Stop loss at 127.86. Take profit at 129.81.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/123004

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #355 on:** September 04, 2018, 07:32:30 AM »

NZD/USD Testing Support, Prepare For Bounce

NZD/USD is approaching its support at 0.6590 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where the price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 0.6637 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is testing its support at 2.5% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

NZD/USD is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce. Buy above 0.6590. Stop loss at 0.6570. Take profit at 0.6637.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/123096

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #356 on:** September 05, 2018, 08:01:27 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 5, 2018

There was no time for a bounce back to 129.85 before the final decline towards the 38.2% corrective target at 128.22. EUR/JPY retested short-term important resistance at 129.14 and then dropped off towards the 38.2% corrective target. It did not quite make it to the low of 128.22, but bottomed at 128.30, which is sufficient to complete red wave (2) and set the stage for a new impulsive rally towards 130.87 on the way higher to 131.99 and ultimately above the February peak at 137.50.

Support is now seen at 129.14, which ideally will be able to protect the downside for a break above 129.85 confirming a retest of 130.87 on the way higher.

R3: 130.87

R2: 130.22

R1: 129.85

Pivot: 129.50

S1: 127.14

S2: 128.91

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.10 and we will move our stop higher to 128.25. If you are not long EUR, buy near support at 129.14 and use the same stop at 128.25.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/123167

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #357 on:** September 06, 2018, 06:21:00 AM »

Germany and the UK refuse the key requirements for Brexit

The British pound and the euro rose sharply against the US dollar after news came that Germany and the United Kingdom abandoned the major requirements for Brexit. The source of the message is Bloomberg. If this information is reliable, rejection of the major requirements will help achieve the EU-UK trade agreement and prevent serious consequences of Brexit.

It should be noted that the UK's withdrawal from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The data released in the first half of the day did not support the European currency, although they were quite positive. According to the report of the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers PMI for the German services sector in August this year was 55 points against the preliminary estimate of 55.2 points. The Compound PMI in August came in at 55.6 points. The index of supply managers PMI for the euro area services sector in August reached 54.4 points against 54.2 points in July this year.

The Compound PMI of the eurozone in August rose to 54.5 points against 54.3 points in July, while economists expected growth to 54.4 points. The data on the US foreign trade deficit in July this year demonstrated again its most significant monthly growth, and exerted pressure on the US dollar.

Evaluating the report, the blockade measures on the part of the White House failed to bring significant change in the deficit. According to experts, the main reason for the growth of the deficit was the slowdown in the growth of other countries' economies, which showed a negative impact on the export of American goods.

The US Commerce Department said that the trade deficit in goods and services in July rose by 9.5% compared to June and amounted to 50.08 billion US dollars. As noted above, the growth was due to exports, which decreased by 1% compared to the previous month. While imports grew by 0.9%. Economists predicted that the deficit would be $ 50.3 billion.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the buyers coped with the task and returned to the 1.1600 resistance level which was lost yesterday, maintaining the upside potential in the risky assets which was mentioned in the morning review. This situation may lead to the trend resumption, a correction on which has been observed since August 28.

The main task for the near future will be the breakthrough of resistance 1.1650, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a test of 1.1690 level. The services data released in the first half of the day in Great Britain had supported the British pound.

According to the report, PMI's supply managers index for the UK services sector increased to 54.3 points in August this year, while this index was at the level of 53.5 points in July. Economists had expected PMI for the UK service sector to be 53.9 in August.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/213473

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #358 on:** September 07, 2018, 09:30:09 AM »

AUD/JPY Testing Support, Prepare For Bounce

AUD/JPY is approaching its support at 79.18 (61.8% Fibonacci extension x2, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where the price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 80.68 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 3.7% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

AUD/JPY is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 79.18. Stop loss at 78.45. Take profit at 80.68.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/123331

Instaforexbuk · « **Reply #359 on:** September 10, 2018, 09:18:40 AM »

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 10, 2018

We continue to look for more upside pressure towards the next sub-target at 1.7820. Longer term resistance at 1.7820 only should prove to be a temporary cap as more upside towards strong resistance at 1.8369 remains expected. Support is now seen at 1.7683 and again at 1.7638 only a break below the later, we confirm more sideways consolidation, and a dip to 1.7605 before the next strong push higher.

R3: 1.7820

R2: 1.7750

R1: 1.7734

Pivot: 1,7701

S1: 1.7683

S2: 1.7638

S3: 1.7605

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.7330 with our stop placed at 1.7565, Upon a break above 1.7734 we will move our stop higher to 1.7595.

Read more: https://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis/quickview/123400

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