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Fundamental analysis of AUD/USD for June 7, 2017

Today AUD/USD has showed a good amount of bullish pressure as the Australian GDP report came out better than expected at 0.3% versus the expected reading of 0.2%. The Australian GDP report has high impact on the currency as it is one of the widest measure of the economic activity and the primary gauge of economic health. Moreover, the AIG Construction index also showed a significant rise to 56.7 which previously was at 51.9. The United States will unveil the crude oil inventories report which is expected to show less deficit at -3.1M which previously was at -6.4M. This report may bring volatility in this pair upon release. To sum up, the positive GDP news on AUD is expected to gain further against USD in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 0.7500-50 and as of positive Australian GDP news today it is expected that price will climb further up towards 0.7750 resistance level in the future. A daily close today above 0.7550 will confirm the upward move towards 0.7750. The pair is in bullish bias until the price takes out 0.7500 with a daily close below it.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92655

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Global macro overview for 08/06/2017

The Crude Oil Inventories data have surprised market participants which resulted in a strong drop in the price of black gold. Crude Oil Inventories showed a rise of 3.3 million barrels against expected 3.5 million barrel drawdown. With such a huge miss, the effect was predictable with Brent plunging -3.60% and WTI collapsing by -4.30% to end the New York session. In this season of the year, the market should experience a seasonal fall in fuel stocks as expected, but these are rising instead. Moreover, since the OPEC production cut agreement in May, oil has now fallen nearly 12%. Cutbacks were maintained at the current level of 1.8 million barrels a day, but in order to limit and control the price drop, the OPEC might start to introduce another measure in form of an increase of the daily production cut. The agreement will not cover Libya and Nigeria, which will not have to limit extraction, and possibly Iran, which may even increase its crude production to 3.8 million barrels per day. In conclusion, if the OPEC would decide to introduce further production cuts, then the prices of oil might fall even deeper and visit the levels of $40 per barrel not seen since July last year. Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a short-lived rally above the navy trend line towards the technical resistance at the level of $48.24, the price reversed after the data and now is trading back under the trend line around the Fibonacci 78% retracement at the level of $45.52. In a case of a further sell-off, the next support is seen at the level of $43.74.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92707

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 9, 2017

EUR/GBP showed a great amount of bullish pressure from the first hour today. It moved 140+ pips in an hour bouncing off from 0.8650 to 0.8820. Recently Pound had been suffering from Brexit vote and currently from the General Election effects. The pound is currently quite weaker and it may cause the households to suffer from rising inflation and damaging growth forecasts. Theresa May from the Conservative Party is currently leading in the General Election with 46.9% votes ahead of Jeremy Corbyn from the Labour Party with 39.5% votes. Though the election results are yet to be published we have already observed weakness of the Great British Pound in the market today. Additionally, GBP Manufacturing Production report is going to be published today which is expected to rise to 0.8% from -0.6% previously, Goods Trade Balance is expected to be at -12.0B decreasing from -13.4B, Construction Output is expected to be positive at 0.5% from -0.7% previously and Industrial Production report is also expected to show a rise to 0.7% from -0.5%. Today GBP economic events are quite optimistic in nature which might help the Pound to gain some strength but the market is still under consolidation as of the election results to be published soon. On the EUR side, German Trade Balance is going to be published today which is expected to rise to 20.3B from 19.6B, French Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from 2.0% and Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate is expected to show a decrease in the unemployment rate to 11.6% from 11.9%. To sum up, a good amount of volatility is going to strike the market despite the optimistic economic events on the both currencies and as of the current situation Pound is expected to lose some grounds today against Euro. Now let us look at the technical view, the price has bounced off the 20 EMA dynamic support level today at the first hour of the market. Currently, the price has already engulfed price actions of the previous number of days and as the price remains above the 20 EMA it is expected that the price will head towards 0.8850 resistance soon. The structure of the currency pair is still residing inside the corrective structure and a break above 0.8850 will signal a further bullish move in this pair in the coming days.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92757

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 12, 2017

EUR/USD recently had a volatile week after the break above 1.1140 resistance area. On Friday, after a good amount of bearish pressure in the market the price was supported by 20 EMA dynamic support. Last week due to several negative economic reports from the Eurozone, USD gained fresh momentum but that was not quite enough as USD also had a streak of negative economic reports recently. Today, Italian Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to show a decrease to 0.2% from 0.4% previously. Tomorrow, Quarterly French Final Non-Farm Payroll report will be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%. These two economic events is expected to provide a good amount of volatility in the market as these are related to production and employment which are among the major economic drivers of the currency. On the USD side, today we don't have any high impact economic report rather than 10-y Bond Auction report which previously was at 2.40|2.3 and it hardly change anythuing due to its inconsistent effect as it carries both growth and risk implications. Tomorrow, we have US PPI report which is expected to show a decrease to 0.0% from 0.5%. As it is one of the leading indicators of consumer inflation, it is expected to have a high impact on USD during its release. To sum up, both currencies in this pair have been impacted by negative economic reports recently which made the market quite volatile and corrective in nature. This week, if we see any strong positive outcome on either currency of this pair, we might see a further gain of the trend or start of a new counter trend. Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the support area of 1.1140 and recently has bounced off the 20 EMA support. As the price remains above the 20 EMA as well as 1.1140 area we will consider buy positions with a target towards the resistance area of 1.1280-1.1360. The bullish bias is expected to continue until the price breaks below 1.1140 with a daily close.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92815

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 13, 2017 ] ] ]


EUR/JPY is currently correcting itself at the edge of breaking the support area of 123.30-50. A good amount of volatility has to strike the market since last week as the price is trying to break below the support area but failed several times to do so. Recently JPY has been quite stronger than EUR and if today's BSI Manufacturing Index comes better than expected figure of 1.5 which previously was at 1.1, we might see a further gain on the JPY side today. Despite the recent negative economic reports of JPY, the currency has managed to gain consistently and it is expected that a positive outcome in the recent reports will provide more push to the gains. On the Eurozone side, today French Final Non-Farm Payroll report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, German WPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to publish with slightly improved figure at 21.6 which previously was at 20.6 and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment is also expected a rise to 37.2 from 35.1 previously. A good amount of economic reports is going to be published on the Eurozone today and it is expected to bring in a good amount of volatility in the market. As the market is currently volatile due to mixed economic reports of both currencies of the pair, so any edge on economic reports today will provide a chance to gain further on each side. Though JPY is expected to have an upper hand over EUR this week due to upcoming JPY Monetary Policy Statement and Bank of Japan Policy Rate to be published on Friday this week. Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently struggling to break below the support area of 123.30-50. Currently, we can see a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern engulfing the last 2 days of price action which signals further bearish move in the pair for the coming days with a target towards 120.60 support level. As the price remains below 123.50 with a daily close we will be within a bearish bias and will be continuing to chase the target towards the 120.60 support level in the future.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92861

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Global macro overview for 14/06/2017 

Another set of good data from the eurozone has been released. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the eurozone (a survey of about 275 German institutional investors and analysts which ask respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the eurozone) rose to 37.7 points in June from 35.1 points the previous month. This was above consensus expectations of 37.2 and the strongest reading since August 2015. However, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined from 20.6 points to 18.6 points in the reported month, while the ZEW Current Situation index increased from 83.9 points to 88.0 points. There was a monthly improvement in both current expectations and the outlook in France and Italy as well, so the data will still provide some relief for the eurozone overall trends. In conclusion, despite a small decline in inflation expectations, the overall confidence in the euro area's economic growth remains strong and it is being backed by the ECB monetary policy. Moreover, political sentiment has improved as well since French President Emmanuel Macron's party in the National Assembly elections also boosted confidence. The euro will be supported by the ECB loose monetary policy as long as it is necessary, especially as the recent inflation reading shows a lack of pressure. The ECB will maintain the wait-and-see approach towards the eurozone's economic growth to manage the risk tail. The interest rates should not go below 0.0% anytime soon. Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the daily time frame. The market has been capped at the technical resistance at the level of 0.8855 and slid to the nearest technical support at the level of 0.8791. The price is trading above all the moving averages and only a clear breakout below the level of 0.8645 would change bias from bullish to bearish.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/92945

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 15, 2017



Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. Currently price is seen at the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements this week. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Besides, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7344 on the H4 chart. However, if the NZD/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.7122 today, the market will decline further to 0.7057. It is recommended to set your stop loss at 0.7122.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93007

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 19, 2017



Overview: The GBP/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2846, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2804. Support is found at the levels of 1.2765 and 1.2715. Besides, a daily pivot point has already set at 1.2806. Equally important, the GBP/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.2806, which represents a daily pivot on the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2756. The pair rose from the level of 1.2756 which coincides with the first support to the top around 1.2806. In consequence, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 1.2715. This level is expected to act as major support today. From this point of view, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2765 towards the target level of 1.2846. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2846, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2846 in order to reach the second target at 1.2904 in coming days. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.2715, then this scenario may be invalidated.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93106

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 20, 2017



USD/JPY has shown a good amount of impulsive bullish move recently bouncing off from 109.00 support area. Yesterday, Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a downbeat deficit of 0.13 trln which was expected to be at a 0.35 trln surplus. As the export demand and currency demand are directly linked, a trade report has high impact on a currency's dynamic and it also influences industrial production and domestic producer prices. The dismal Trade Balance report yesterday led to more gains of USD against JPY yesterday. Besides, the US dollar is one of the most attractive assets right now due to rise in the Treasury Yields. Recently, FOMC member William Dudley dropped a hint about rising wages to revive domestic inflation in the short term. USD Current Account report is due later today which is expected to show wider deficit at -124B from -112B previously and FOMC member Stanley Fischer is going to speak after a while about the nation's key interest rate and future monetary policy decisions. Today, Japan did not present any economic reports but any negative economic report from the US today will lead to further gains on the JPY side. Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently being rejected off the 111.70. Recently, the price has respected the level as resistance for several times. So at present, the following scenario is expected. If the price remains below that level with a daily close, then the price will go down towards 108.80 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 111.70 with a daily close above it, we will consider buy positions with a target towards 114.30 area.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93148

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for June 21, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently residing in a corrective volatile structure after the break above 123.30-50 area. Euro has been gaining over Yen recently due to recent negative JPY economic reports. Today is an important day for JPY as Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be held which is a detailed record of BOJ Policy Boards Meeting providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions which influence the interest rate decision. As the news has a quite high impact, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today. Along with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, All Industry Activity report is going to be published which is expected to show a rise to 1.7% from -0.6% previously. On the Eurozone side, recently the trade balance report was published with the worst figure at 22.2B which was expected to be at 31.3B and along with it, German PPI report was also worst at -0.2% which was expected to be at -0.1%. As the recent JPY and EUR economic reports were negative the market is seen correcting itself due to no proper trendy move on each side of the market. Now let us look at the technical view, the price has shown a good amount of bearish pressure due to negative economic reports of the Eurozone. Currently, the price is expected to show good amount bearish pressure after breaking below 123.30 with a daily close having a down target towards 118.40-50 support area. As the price remains below the trendline resistance of 124.65 the bearish bias is expected to continue further. The bearish bias will only negate if the price breaks above the trendline resistance with a daily close.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 22, 2017




Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205 (a major support). The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.7205 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. Currently, the price was in a bullish channel since two days. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. So, the NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7344 today. On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7128 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels).

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93278

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Analysis of gold for June 23, 2017



Recently, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,258.00. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a climatic action followed by no demand bars, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The price also tested upper diaognal of channel, which is another sign of potential wekaness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at $1,247.00 and $1,243.00. Resistance levels: R1: $1,254.30 R2: $1,256.50 R3: $1,260.00 Support levels: S1: $1,247.00 S2: $1,245.00 S3: $1,241.00 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93342

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 28, 2017

The index was under a heavy selling pressure during Tuesday's session, pushing lower towards 96.38, where is located the immediate support for the greenback. If that level gives up, we can witness a downside's continuation towards the support area of 95.77. To the upside, if USDX does a rebound, it can retrace back towards 96.77.



H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20 H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77 Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.38, take profit is at 95.77 and stop loss is at 97.00.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93448

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Global macro overview for 30/06/2017

Upbeat data from the US economy did not prevent the US Dollar from falling. The Final GDP data from the US was revised up to 1.4% from 1.2%, mainly due to better indicators of personal consumption expenditure, which hit a level of 1.1% from the low of 0.6% (but there was a small downward revision to investment growth for the quarter). The net exports were revised higher and the government spending was estimated to have contracted at a slower rate. The GDP Price Index was revised down to 1.9% from the previous estimate of 2.2% and this might trigger some uncertainty regarding the inflationary pressures. At the last FOMC meeting, Chairperson Jannet Yellen still remained dovish and data-dependent in her monetary policy statements.The FED policy members still planning at least two interest rate hikes this year. However, if the underlying inflationary pressures will not rise fast enough, markets might start to feel disappointed as the hike will not be justified by the fundamentals. This is why the FED prefers to wait for more data before making any decision regarding the interest rate hike. Therefore, the next hike might be expected not in September 2017 but in December 2017, just before the year's end. Let's now take a look at the US dollar index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The inflow of positive data from the US does not contribute to the strength of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, which assumes superiority to almost all G10 currencies. The price has violated the important technical support at the level of 95.91 and made a low at the level of 95.47 in oversold market conditions. The bias remains to the downside.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93606

[Instaforexbuk]

[size=150]Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 3, 2017 [/size]



NZD/USD is consolidating and expected to trade in a lower range. The pair stays below its resistance at 0.734 and remains in a bearish channel. The 20-period moving average is still below the 50-period moving average, which should also maintain a bearish bias. And the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, lacking upward momentum. As long as 0.7345 holds as the key resistance, the risk of a break below 0..7290 remains high. A break below this level may allow for a further drop to 0.7275.

Strategy:

SELL Stop Loss: 0.7345.

Take Profit: 0.72590

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7360, 0.7375, and 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7290, 0.7275, and 0.7255

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93654

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 4, 2017

EUR/JPY has been very bullish in nature after the break above the 125.80 resistance level last week. Due to the hawkish comment of the ECB President Draghi on his last speech due to global economic boom, EUR is currently quite powerful against JPY. JPY has been suffering a lot recently due to bad economic data which did affected the gain of the JPY against all other currencies in the market. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with a worse figure at 17.0% which previously was at 19.4% and today it was expected to be at 19.2% but Bank of Japan Core CPI report did somehow met the expectation today at 0.3% which previously was at 0.2%. On the EUR side, today Spanish Unemployment Change was negative at -98.3k from the previous value of -111.9k which was expected to increase to -120.3k. Although the report is considered as a lagging indicator of the economy but the number of unemployed people is an important signal of the economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions, so as a result the negative result of the report is expected to make EUR much weaker in the coming days. Along with it, today EUR PPI report was also published which also showed negative result at -0.4% which was expected to be at -0.2% from the previous value of 0.0%. Today EUR is quite weaker in comparison to JPY by considering the economic reports and as one of the leading economic indicator of EUR has come out negative, JPY is expected to gain currently against EUR on the short-term basis. Now let us look at the technical view, the price has shown a good amount of impulsive bullish movement after breaking above the 125.80 resistance level and way above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which signals upcoming retracement in this pair. Currently, the price is expected to move down to 20 EMA or support level of 125.80 before price proceeds its move further upward with a target towards 132.20 resistance level. The bullish bias will continue further until price breaks below 125.80 with a daily close.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93744

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[size=150]AUD/USD change in momentum, time to start selling [/size]

Price has broken our long term ascending support-turned-resistance line signalling that a change in momentum is seen. We prepare to sell below resistance at 0.7638 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, pullback resistance) for a push down to at least 0.7577 support (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support). RSI (55) also shows a change in momentum has occurred with a break of its long term ascending support-turned-resistance line. Now the key goal is to look out for selling opportunities when there is strength. Correlation analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both strongly positively correlated. Both are expecting drops today. It is good to see them moving in tandem as it increases our conviction on this trade. Sell below 0.7638. Stop loss at 0.7682. Take profit at 0.7577.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93784

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[size=150]AUD/JPY is bouncing up nicely, remain bullish [/size]

The price is bouncing up nicely above major support at 85.60 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci extension) and we look to buy on weakness at this level for a bounce to at least 86.97 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 7% which stochastic is fast approaching. Buy above 85.60. Stop loss is at 84.88. Take profit is at 86.97.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/93874

[Instaforexbuk]

Wave analysis of the GBP / USD currency pair for July 7, 2017





Analysis of wave counting: In general, it is expected that during the yesterday's trading, the pair GBP / USD continued to develop an upward movement and it was able to work out the mark of 1,2980 in the middle of the day. The resulting wave situation allows us to assume that the currency pair remained in the stage of formation of the waves b, b, C, and (C); which can also take a much more complicated form. At the same time, it should be noted that there are no significant obstacles to the resumption of the growth of quotations and the confirmation by the currency pair of the beginning of the formation of the waves c, b, C, and (C). Objectives for a downward wave option: 1,2883 – 23.6% by Fibonacci 1,2784 – 38.2% by Fibonacci Objectives for an upward wave option: 1,3027 – 261.8% by Fibonacci 1,3100 – 1,3200 General conclusions and trading recommendations: The British currency completed the construction of the waves a, C, and (C). At the moment, the quotations are expected to decrease within the limits of waves b, b, C, and (C); with targets located near the marks of 1,2883 and 1,2784, which corresponds to 23.6% and 38.2% by Fibonacci. After the completion of this wave, it is possible to resume the increase in quotations within the waves c, b, C, and (C) with targets above 31 figures.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/185723

[Instaforexbuk]

USD/JPY prepare to sell on major resistance

The price is approaching major resistance at 114.32 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 111.77 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we expect a drop from this level soon. Sell below 114.32. Stop loss is at 115.09. Take profit is at 111.77.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/94032

[Instaforexbuk]

GBP/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 1.2817 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a nice bounce above this level to push price towards 1.3029 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing support above 4.8% where we expect a bounce from. Buy above 1.2817. Stop loss at 1.2741. Take profit at 1.3029.



Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/94181

[Instaforexbuk]

[size=150]Candlestick analysis of NZD / USD on July 12[/size]



Prices hang up from the correction level of 161.8% to 0.7199 and the formation of bullish Harami candlestick pattern are working in favor of the New Zealand currency.

The expansion started in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% - 0.7289.

The NZD / USD consolidated below the correction level of 161.8% which will increase chances of further decline in prices towards the next corrective level of 100.0% - 0.7053.

The Fibonacci grid is placed on extremes from April 24, 2017 and May 11, 2017.

Daily




The weakening of the NZD / USD pair continues as shown the 24-hour chart towards the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 0.7172. The pair's retracement level of 23.6% is expected to allow traders make a move favorable to the New Zealand currency and some development approaching the correction level of 0.0% - 0.7484. The formation of the bullish candle pattern will also work inclined with the initial growth of the pair. The pair consolidated below the Fibo level of 23.6% had increased chances of continuing the decline towards the next correction level of 38.2% - 0.6977. The Fibonacci grid is located on extremes from August 24, 2015 and September 8, 2016. Specification: Weak candle formations will be marked with plain text and a smaller size of arrows. Strong candle formations will be marked with bold text and a larger size of arrows.

Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/185961

[Instaforexbuk]

The Demand for the US dollar May Return

The US dollar managed to strengthen its position against the European currency after the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, however, today's Asian session has undergone a steep correction. The speech of the Esther George, Federal Reserve President of the Kansas City, has cooled down investors sentiment who are expecting a further increase in interest rates of the Fed. Esther said that there is a need to reduce the balance, which should begin in the near future, since the current position of the Fed can result in financial imbalances. Also, in her opinion, it is important that the Fed allows long-term interest rates to grow since the committee does not have the capacity to lower rates, if necessary. According to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the cycle of raising interest rates has already started. Today, traders attention is focused on the speech of Janet Yellen who is already in front of the bank committee of the US Senate. If the Fed chairman sheds light on the new terms in raising interest rates, this will lead to a further increase of the US dollar. Let me remind you that, according to the Fed's plans, there is at least one more interest rate hike planned this year but there are a number of constraints. The chief of which is the recent slowdown in the inflation rate. To date, the probability of another rate hike in 2017 is estimated at about 52% against the previous 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, much will depend on the 1.1396 level and another decline would trigger several buyers to cancel stop orders which will collapse the trading instrument that is already in the range of new weekly support at 1.1350 and 1.1295. In the case of a repeated test of weekly resistance levels at 1.1470 and 1.1500 area, a breakout may occur that could lead to the formation of a new upward wave with an increase of the highs at 1.1560 and 1.1630. Today, the exports data from China was published during the Asian session, which has increased significantly in June this year. According to the official data from the Customs Administration of China, exports rose by 11.3% in June compared to the same period in the previous year, after rising 8.7% in May. The annual import growth in June was 17.2% following an increase of 14.8% in May. Economists expected imports to grow by 12.4% compared to the same period last year. The positive balance of foreign trade in China climbed to 42.77 billion US dollars.


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[Instaforexbuk]

Divergences Analysis of USD / JPY July 14

4h



The correction of the pair halted at the level of 76.4% - 113.06 allowed the reversal to be in favor of the U. S. dollar and the uptrend began towards the 100.0% correction level at 114.36. There is no sign of divergence today. The pullback of the USD/JPY pair with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% was in favor of the Japanese currency and the continuation of the decline headed towards 112.25 with the correction of 61.8%. This ends the quotation from 100.0% Fibonacci level that works in favor of the beginning of a decline.

Daily




On the 24-hour chart, the quotation was in favor of the Japanese yen from the correction level of 23.6% at 114.07. Consequently, the price fell towards 111.17 with 38.2% Fibonacci level. Emerging divergence is not observed in any of the indicator. Fixing the pair above the 23.6% retracement level at 118.66 level will be in favor of the U.S. dollar and will proceed towards the Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 118.66. Similarly, a retracement of the pair from the correctional level of 38.2% could lead to a slight increase.

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[Instaforexbuk]

Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2017



Wave summary:

 EUR/JPY continues to point lower in a correction, which ideally will reach a low of 126.39 before turning higher again towards at least 1.3346. Short-term minor resistance is seen at 129.52, which we expect will cap the upside for a deeper corrective decline. Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 129.85 with stop placed at 129.70 and take profit will be placed at 126.50.

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[Instaforexbuk]

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for July 18, 2017

GBP/USD has been trading with a bullish bias recently despite the weak economic reports and political uncertainty in the country. The price has been very impulsive for the last three days due to weakness of the USD which was greater than GBP in comparison. Today GBP gained ground in the morning but after the negative economic reports all the bulls were impulsively rejected and currently the market is in a total bearish bias. Today, the UK CPI report was published with a worse value at 2.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.9%, PPI Input showed a softer decline at -0.4% from the previous value of -0.7% which was expected to drop to -0.8%, RPI report was published with a worse figure at 3.5% from previous value of 3.7% which was expected to be at 3.6%, Core CPI was published with a worse figure at 2.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.6%, HPI report was published at 4.7% which previously was at 5.3% which was expected to be at 3.0%, and PPI Output report was published with a decreased value of 0.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.1%. On the USD side, today Import Prices report is due later today which is expected to show a better reading at -0.2% from the previous value of -0.3%, and NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to be unchanged at 67. To sum up, despite the mixed economic reports from the UK today the weakness is again observed on GBP/USD. As the weakness in GBP continues, further bearish pressure is expected to hit the pair in the coming days. Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently rejected the bulls after downbeat economic reports today which led the price to come below 1.3050 resistance level again. Currently, the price is expected to move lower towards 1.2800 support area as of recent rejection of the bulls in the market. If we see a daily close below 1.3050, a further bearish move is expected with a target towards 1.2800. Otherwise, if the price closes above 1.3050 with a daily close today, then further bullish pressure is expected with a target towards 1.3370 resistance level.



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[Instaforexbuk]

[size=150]Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for July 19, 2017 [/size]



Analysis of wave counting: At the beginning of yesterday's trading, the pair USD / JPY resumed the development of a downward movement after losing nearly 100 pp, and completed the day near the level of the 112th figure. The resulting wave situation allows us to assume that the currency pair is still in the stage of forming the 1st wave, in the future wave C, E, (B). If this is the case, then from the minimums of the past day, or after a decline to the level of 111.00, the currency may indicate the beginning of the 2nd wave, in C, E, (B), as indicated by a rather strong divergence of MACD. Targets for a downward wave option: 112.00 - 111.00 Targets for an upward wave option: 113.00 114.72 - 127.2% by Fibonacci 115.00 General conclusions and trading recommendations: The instrument supposedly completed the construction of the wave E, C, (B). Within the framework of the construction of wave C, E, (B), the reduction of quotations can continue with the goals of about 112 and 111 figures (these goals will be further clarified). Wave c, B, E, (B) can complicate its internal structure, but at the moment it looks complete. A small convergence of MACD warns of the readiness of the tool to build a correctional wave 2.

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[Instaforexbuk]

Wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair for July 20, 2017



Analysis of wave counting: During yesterday's trading, the euro paused before today's ECB meeting and until the end of the day the EUR / USD slid slowly from Tuesday's maximum to 1.1510. At the same time, it can be assumed that the currency pair remained in the formation stage assuming an increasingly complex form of wave c, c, c, c, c, e, e, (B). The unfolding indicators indicate the possibility of continuing the beginning of the decline in quotations, which in turn may indicate the beginning of the future wave (C). Objectives for a downward wave option: 1.1414-127.2% by Fibonacci 1.1291 - 100.0% by Fibonacci Objectives for an upward wave option: 1.1570 - 161.8% Fibonacci 1.800 General conclusions and trading recommendations : The currency pair has again resumed the construction of the wave (B), which now takes an even more complicated look. It is now possible to continue raising quotations with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1570, which is equivalent to 161.8% Fibonacci and above, about 18 figures. An unsuccessful attempt to break the mark of 1.11570 led to the withdrawal of quotes from the peaks achieved, however, this does not mean that the wave (B) has completed its construction.

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[Instaforexbuk]

Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair for July 21, 2017



Analysis of wave counting: During the first half of yesterday's trading, after the growth of 112.40, the pair USD / JPY still started the expected downward movement, having lost almost 100 bp, and broke through the level of 111.50 in the afternoon. In this case, the internal wave structure of the entire 1st wave, in the composition of the future wave C, E, (B), has acquired a completely completed form. If this is so, the 5th wave, in the 1st, C, E, (B), will not take an even more complicated form, then from the minimum of the past day the currency pair will begin to form an upward correction and thus denote the beginning of wave 2, in C, E, (B). Targets for a downward wave option: 111.23 - 100.0% Fibonacci 110.20 - 161.8% Fibonacci Targets for an upward wave option: 113.00 - 114.00 General conclusions and trading recommendations: The instrument supposedly completed the construction of the wave E, C, (B). In the framework of the construction of wave C, E, (B), the decrease in quotations may continue with targets near the calculated marks of 111.23 and 110.20, which is equivalent to 100.0% and 161.8% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 111.23 may lead to the construction of an ascending correction wave 2.

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[Instaforexbuk]

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 24, 2017



NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The technical outlook of the pair is positive as the price recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since July 20. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength is bullish above its neutrality level at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.7390 holds on the downside, look for a new upside to 0.7500 and even to 0.7530 in extension. Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7390 Take Profit: 0.7470 Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades. Resistance levels: 0.750, 0.7530, and 0.7565 Support levels: 0.7360, 0.7330, and 0.7285

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